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All tagged Forecasting
As the end of the financial year approaches, it's a good time to reflect on the past year's performance and set goals for the upcoming financial year.
Building a cash flow forecast can help businesses plan their cash needs and ensure they have enough liquidity to cover their expenses.
The CFO role has never been so important. Companies are navigating uncertain territory and having a strong CFO that can manage the nuts and bolts of finance and help navigate the commercial as well is instrumental to how companies navigate this period.
I started on a typical path post university, 10 years at EY as an auditor……
I loved every minute of it.
Earnst & Young (EY) had a great culture, good clients, great people in the
The concept of budget and forecast was simple ….
Using prior year information and overlaying assumptions, historical changes, investments etc to deliver a new set up numbers for the upcoming year or years. Shareholders wanted to see an improvement and so as long as the percentage changes were going the right way then you were normally ok.
Mark Easdown writes about complexity. In the mid 1980s, a school of thought emerged around “Complexity” and “Complex Adaptive Systems” with the formation of the Sante Fe Institute, formed in part by former members of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The institute drew from multi-disciplinary domains and insights of : economics, neural networks, physics, artificial intelligence, chaos theory, cybernetics, biology, ecology and archaeology. Theories on Complexity and Complex Adaptive systems sought to develop common frameworks and understandings of physical and social systems that was an alternate to more linear and reductionist modes of thinking.
Mark Easdown writes about forecasting. The prediction process starts with propositions, then verified, quantified and made actionable. A robust peer review occurs and 95% of predictions are modified along the way. Plummer routinely scrutinises predictions with actual events and these results are highlighted at conferences – championing the successes and sharing insights across those that were wrong. “Nobody here is hired because they’re psychic; there hired to generate insights that are useful – even if they turn out wrong. It’s useful to get you thinking”.
