The Problem Is …. How to Solve It?
Mark Easdown writes about problem solving… Good problem solving needs: cognitive diversity, valuing dissent to mitigate consensus “fails” & “group think”, a clear approach in stressful situations, switch thinking or adding some randomness to process, a healthy power relationship (no hubris or silencing of opposition, a need for participative management & subordinate assertiveness training), multiple approaches to problem solving …
Article written by Mark Easdown
Individuals, Teams & Enterprise, Mental Models, Ways of Working
““A problem well put is half solved.””
““I think that there is only one way to science – or to philosophy, for that matter: to meet a problem, to see its beauty and fall in love with it; to get married to it and to live happily, till death do ye part – unless you should meet another and even more fascinating problem or unless, indeed, you should obtain a solution. But even if you do obtain a solution, you may discover, to your delight, the existence of a whole family of enchanting, though perhaps difficult, problem children …””
““By operating without a leader the scout bees of a swarm neatly avoid one of the greatest threats to good decision making by groups: a domineering leader. Such an individual reduces a group’s collective power to uncover a diverse set of possible solutions to a problem, to critically appraise these possibilities, and to winnow out all but the best one.””
““Probably he played it the way he did because it was not a good piano. Because he could not fall in love with it he found another way to get the most out of it.” ”
Did you know ?
3M has a “flexible attention” policy (take a walk, nap, play a game) as they know creative ideas and problem solutions can sneak up on us as we pay attention to something else. Ideas flow between silos with engineers rotated between departments each few years.
Problem solving is a process followed to find solutions to difficult or complex issues.
What might that look like ?
Variances & deviations from desired outcomes – this may be pleasant (an opportunity) or unpleasant (Apollo 13)
For a problem to be solved suggests some precision in description, identification, root cause
Maybe we have a criterion that our best explanation or lived experience just fails to meet
An exploration of problem solving uncovers useful practices, shines a light on power structures and reveals a wider array of human perceptions, traits & group dynamics;
Author Charlan Nemeth in “No! , The power of disagreement in a world that wants to get along” highlights the case of United Airlines Flight 173, in the days before Christmas in 1978 flying from NY to Portland Oregon, USA. As the plane approached Portland it lowered the landing gear and the cockpit heard a large thump with the plane vibrating and rotating. The pilot questioned the landing gear, aborted landing and put the plane into a holding pattern. For 45 minutes, pilot and crew investigated the flight panel & landing gear problem yet overlooked the fact the plane proceeded to run out of fuel, falling out of sky, killing 10 people of the 196 on board, just six miles from airport. How can this problem solving go so tragically wrong?
Good problem solving needs: cognitive diversity, valuing dissent to mitigate consensus “fails” & “group think”, a clear approach in stressful situations, switch thinking or adding some randomness to process, a healthy power relationship (no hubris or silencing of opposition, a need for participative management & subordinate assertiveness training), multiple approaches to problem solving (broad information search, multiple alternatives considered), a human tendency to not see a solution if it is at odds with majority judgement, the very action of voicing dissent with conviction will alter the perception & awareness of others.
Maybe the way things “are” differ from our best thinking or theory on the way things “should be” .
Let’s take a look at Problem Solving & Mental Models across a few domains; In Adversity, In Manufacturing, In Investment Markets and In Nature
Producing your finest problem solving & improvisation, driven on by adversity
“”Messy : How to be creative and resilient in a tidy-minded world””
In January 1975, 17 year old Vera Brandes stood on the stage of the Cologne Opera House, awaiting a full house, as the youngest concert promoter in Germany. Vera had convinced American Jazz Pianist, Keith Jarrett to perform a solo recital, had arranged the grand concert hall, invited 1,400 people and arranged for delivery of a very specific & artist requested Bosendorfer 290 Imperial concert grand piano.
The problem for Vera’s project was that the opera house staff had wheeled out the wrong piano and gone home. They had wheeled out a small piano which would not produce enough sound to reach the furthest balconies, the piano was out of tune, the black notes in the middle of the keyboard didn’t work, the piano pedals were stuck – it was unplayable. In the scarce time before the concert, the local piano tuner concluded that given the heavy rain outside, a substitute piano would not survive the transitional trip from nearby storage facility.
Technicians spent several hours trying to make the piano sound halfway decent, the high and low notes jangled, the piano pedals malfunctioned and even the performer was suffering from several days of back pain and wearing extra spinal support. Understandably Keith Jarrett refused to play, but Vera Brandes cajoled, pacified & pleaded and at 11-30pm the concert finally began.
So with Vera Brandes project flashing bright red, what problem solving skills did Keith Jarrett deploy to overcome sub-optimal & malfunctioning tools ?
As the author says “ The minute he played the first note, everybody knew this was magic”, “It was beautiful and strange”, “ The Koln concert album has sold 3.5 million copies, no other solo jazz album nor piano solo has matched it”, “Jarrett really had to play the piano very hard to get enough volume to the balconies”, “ ….”handed a mess, Keith Jarrett embraced it, and soared”.
Toyota Business Practices (TBP) – A problem solving model
Toyota has a rich and deep history of instruction, values, actions shared, practiced, experienced and refined by many staff across many cultures around the world. Its Best Practices are constantly evolving. Toyota Business Practices are an example of tangible approaches to daily work, the essence of TBP is a problem solving model. Whilst a mastery is achieved across time and through daily work and with a mindset of drive and dedication, a basic summary includes the following elements;
Toyota defines “a problem” as a gap between the current state (as is) and future/ideal state (to be). The concept of problem is not viewed as a negative, as to find problems and to take countermeasures to eliminate them leads to continuous improvement.
““No one has more trouble than the person who claims to have no trouble””
A summary of the basic steps of Toyota Problem Solving, 2006 includes;
1. Clarify the Problem: requires understanding and pre-emptive thinking around: Ultimate Goal (what is the contribution, the purpose, how is it realised and for whom?), Current Situation ( talk to people involved, observe, concrete terms) & Ideal Situation ( a clear standard result to be achieved after problem is solved, it is a concrete & achievable and contributes to the ultimate goal)
2. Break down the Problem: requires qualitative and quantitative analysis, prioritise and break down bigger problem into smaller and more concrete ones to observe and find the point of occurrence
3. Set a Target: A target is measurable & states by when & is challenging in nature
4. Analyse the Root Cause: look at the point of occurrence & cascade thinking through asking why & seek peer review. If the countermeasures are applied to something other than root cause – this leads to wasted effort and resources
5. Develop countermeasures: develop many versions, select highest value-add & compliance, build consensus , make clear action plans
6. See countermeasures through: implement with concerted efforts, speed & persistence, share information, inform, report and consult, trial and error to expected results
7. Monitor results & process: ensure targets achieved, understand reasons for success or failure and accumulate continuous improvement knowledge
8. Standardise Successful Process: establish new standard and start next round of continuous problem solving / PDCA
““I have found it helpful to think of my life as if it were a game in which each problem I face is a puzzle I need to solve. By solving the puzzle, I get a gem in the form of a principle that helps me avoid the same sort of problem in the future. Collecting these gems continually improves my decision making, so I am able to ascend to higher and higher levels of play in which the game gets harder and the stakes become ever greater.” ”
Ray Dalio – Principles & Problem Solving in Investment Management
In 1975, Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates which went on to become the world’s largest hedge fund by 2005. He is known as a successful investor, innovator and aimed to structure global portfolios with uncorrelated investment returns, with allocations based on risk analysis rather than by asset classes. In 2011, Ray & Barbara Dalio established a philanthropic foundation and pledged to donate more than half their fortune in their lifetimes. In 2011, he self-published on-line his philosophy of investment which evolved to be an acclaimed 2017 book “Principles” on corporate management and investment. An overview of the framework Ray Dalio approaches problem solving includes;
1. Have Clear Goals: You cannot have everything – prioritise, don’t conflate your goals with just desires and decide what you really want, setbacks are important to making progress – in bad times you may need to modify goals to preserve what you have.
2. Identify & don’t tolerate problems: a useful mind hack if that painful problems are usually a good signpost you have a problem worth diagnosing and improving, don’t avoid problems as they are rooted in harsh and unpleasant realities, be precise and specific with your problem description, pull apart causes and the real problem, fix problems that yield biggest returns and take care small problems are not symptoms of larger ones, failing to address a problem has the same consequences as failing to identify it.
3. Diagnose problems to get at their root causes: don’t jump immediately into solution mode, identify “what” before commencing “what to do about it”, you must identify the root cause – not proximate ones, sometimes you will find the root cause is people or system or process, it can be a painful journey to resolution
4. Design a Plan: visual what you need to do to achieve goals, what needs to change to produce better outcomes, there are possibly many pathways – you just need to find one that works, create a narrative and time lines, identify tasks that connect to the narrative to achieve goals.
5. Push through to completion : you will need self-discipline, good work habits (well organised, to-do lists, priorities) are vastly underrated, establish clear metrics, have another monitor your results, as you discover new problems – repeat
Dalio’s problem solving mental models also covers: self-awareness (knowing your weakness & staring into them is a first step to success), seek to understand what your missing, be humble & radically open-minded (address ego and blind spot barriers), beware of harmful emotions, first learn then decide, simplify, use principles, determine who you should be listening to and what is true, be very specific about problems – don’t start with generalisations, convert your principles into algorithms and have these make decisions alongside you.
“The Waggle Dance” – Nest site selection & group decision making
In the 1950s, Martin Lindauer published a study on house hunting by honey bees and observed that bee scouts perform “waggle dances” on the surface of a swarm to advertise potential new nest sites. Advancing this research Cornell biologist Thomas Seeley noted the process was “complicated enough to rival the dealings of any department committee”, as potentially 10,000+ bees will relocate and need an efficient process to narrow alternatives and mitigate risks of bad decisions. When a hive gets too crowded, its queen and half the hive will swarm to a nearby tree and wait for several hundred scouts to go house hunting. Seeley notes “the bee’s method, which is a product of disagreement and contest rather than consensus and compromise, consistently yields excellent collective decisions”
Let’s explore the bee’s problem to solve;
The bee colony survival is as stake, so an accurate decision is required. New home must be suitable for rearing brood and storing honey and offer protections from: predators, thieves and bad weather.
A speedy decision is required, as the more hours the entire hive is exposed to elements it loses energy and reserves
A unified choice is required. Communications and contestability are crucial, a split decision could be fatal
What can bees teach us about problem solving & decision making?
Whilst the problem to solve is of a clear and stable nature, information may be incomplete or inaccurate
Information in a complex environment may be constantly evolving and changing
Bees use hundreds of independent, widely distributed scouts who return with heterogeneous information (differing constituents, dissimilar components, non-uniform in composition) which may be better or worse and is shared with other scouts by way of a waggle dance, no scout is stifled & the swarm leverages its collective intelligence.
So, how do they find consensus as any individual scout has only direct experience with select potential sites, yet many are examined and considered?
It is in the friendly competition between scouts and the various coalitions all vying for favoured sites, the exercise is not solved with “group-think”, rather a scout may leave the swarm cluster and go to examine potential site to judge its merit. There is no need for an individual scout to have a macro global view of all alternatives, nor a need to tally and compare votes – it is the smarts of the swarm working as individuals or collectives making speedy, accurate and unified assessments.
To recap
As we have seen across multiple domains and across several mental models, problems are not necessarily a bad thing – sometimes they are a pathway to travel to deliver quality strategic outcomes, sometimes they are a link in a chain of continuous improvement (kaizen), if they are material they must be addressed to mitigate severe consequences (Flight 173, Investment Returns and bee hive nest selection), a structure and process is very useful, to solve problems will often reveal some uncomfortable truths about the nature of the individuals, the group, power structures, communications and these must also be confronted and resolved.
Yet, as Keith Jarrett demonstrated bringing passion, intelligence, skill, pragmatism and persistence to problem solving, can yield your teams greatest moment. White Ark is here to help you.
When Richard Feynman faces a problem, he's unusually good at going back to being like a child, ignoring what everyone else thinks... He was so unstuck --- if something didn't work, he'd look at it another way." --- Marvin Minsky, MIT
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Forecasting
Mark Easdown writes about forecasting. The prediction process starts with propositions, then verified, quantified and made actionable. A robust peer review occurs and 95% of predictions are modified along the way. Plummer routinely scrutinises predictions with actual events and these results are highlighted at conferences – championing the successes and sharing insights across those that were wrong. “Nobody here is hired because they’re psychic; there hired to generate insights that are useful – even if they turn out wrong. It’s useful to get you thinking”.
Article written by Mark Easdown
Decision Making & Planning, Ways of Working with Uncertainty
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.”
“There is great value in bringing together people who attempt to address a common problem of forecasting from different perspectives and based on very different kinds of data.”
“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won’t come in.”
“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
“I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much indetermined and unpredictable, to a pretence of exact knowledge that is likely to be false.”
“The Lucretius underestimation, after the Latin poetic philosopher who wrote that the fool believes that the tallest mountain there is, should be equal to the tallest one he has observed.”
A forecast is a statement about the future. (Clements & Henry, 1998)
As authors of “Forecasting” (J.Castle, M.Clements, D.Henry) note; a forecast can take many forms;
Some are vague and some are precise, Some are concerned with near term and some the distant future
“Fore” denotes in advance whilst “Cast” might sound a bit chancy (cast a fishing net, cast a spell) or might sound more solid (bronze statues are also cast)
Chance is central to forecasting & forecasts can and often do differ from outcomes
Forecasts should be accompanied by some level of certainty/uncertainty, time horizon, upper/lower bounds
The domain in which the forecast occurs matter, especially if no-one knows the complete set of possibilities
The authors consider the history of forecasting;
Forecasting likely pre-dates recorded writing with hunter-gatherers seeking where game of predators might be, edible plants and water supplies. Babylonians tracked the night sky presumably for planting and harvesting crops
Sir William Petty perhaps introduced early statistical forecasting in 17th Century and thought he observed a seven year “business cycle”
Weather forecasting evolved with Robert Fitzroy in 1859, who sought to devise a storm warning system to enable safe passage of ships and avoid loss of vessels &/or ships staying in port unnecessarily. Forecasting of nature extended to hurricanes, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.
Yet, history is littered with failures in forecasting, large and small;
Ambiguous forecasts from Oracles of Delphi and Nostradamus
UK storms 1987, with lives lost and approximately 15million trees blown down
Failure to predict 1929 Great Depression or severity of Global Financial Crisis, mid-2007 to early 2009
“When the Paris exhibition closes, the electric light will close with it and no more be heard of it” – Sir Erasmus Wilson & “a rocket will never be able to leave the earth’s atmosphere” – NY Times 1936
What do we want from forecasts ?
Do we want just accuracy? To what degree is that even possible across complicated and complex domains?
Do we want cognitively diverse teams to make us more aware of extreme events? Thus, minimising downside risks?
Do we just want comfort, ideological support and evidence of our existing beliefs? Do we want entertainment?
Do we want to influence a target audience, shift consensus or established beliefs?
These answers may differ if you are a CEO, CFO, Head of Sales, Head of Innovation, an Insurance Actuary, Epidemiologist, Politician, Economist, Intelligence Agency, Shock Jock or Sports Commentator.
For example, it was a mainstream view of epidemiologists across last 20 years that a pandemic was a prominent risk;
“The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the re-emergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.”- David Epstein 2007
https://davidepstein.com/lets-get-ready-to-rumble-humanity-vs-infectious-disease/
https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/20/4/660.full.pdf
So, is COVID19 perhaps SARS2? Clearly, forecasting a pandemic is desirable. How do we give prominence to diverse voices & data and what are the better practices to observe and implement?
SUPER-FORECASTING
In October 2002, the US National Intelligence Estimates (a consensus view of the CIA, NSA, DIA and thirteen other agencies with > 20,000 intelligence analysts) concluded that the key claims of the Bush Administration claims about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq were correct. After invading Iraq in 2003, the US found no evidence of WMDs. “It was one of the worst – arguably the worst - intelligence failure in modern history” notes Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in their book “Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction”
In 2006, IARPA was formed to fund cutting-edge research with the aim of potentially enhancing the intelligence community work. IAPRA’s plan was to create a tournament-style incentive for top researchers (intelligence analysts, universities & a team of volunteers for the Good Judgement Project (GJP)), to generate accurate probability estimates to questions that were;
Neither so easy that an attentive reader of the NY Times could get them right , nor
So hard that no one on the planet could get them right
Approximately 500 questions spanned: economic, security, terrorism, energy, environmental, social and political realms
Forecast performance was monitored individually and in teams, and Tetlock’s GJP team proved 60% more accurate in year 1, 78% more accurate in Year 2.
What did these forecasting tournaments learn about the attributes of super-forecasters that may be of relevance in Commercial or Government organisations? Here are a few;
Superforecasters spoke in probabilities of how likely an event would occur (not in absolutes : yes/no), this better enabled them to accept a level of uncertainty – it made them more thoughtful and accurate
Superforecasters were often educated yet ordinary people with an open-mind, an ability to change their minds, humility and an ability to review assumptions & update forecasts frequently, albeit at times by small increments
Actions which were helpful included;
Breaking the question down into smaller components and identifying the known and the unknown, focus on work that is likely to have better payoff, actively seek to distinguish degrees of uncertainty, avoid binding rules. Consider the “outsiders” view, frame the problem not uniquely but as part of a wider phenomena
Examine what is unique about problem and look at your opinions and how they differ from other people’s viewpoints. Take in all the information with your “dragonfly eyes” and construct a unified vision, balancing arguments and counterarguments, balancing prudence and decisiveness – generating a description as clearly, concisely and as granular as possible
Don’t over-react to new information – a Bayesian approach was useful
The GJP found that while many forecasters were accurate within a horizon of 150 days, not even the super-forecasters were confident beyond 400 days, forecasts out to 5 years were about equal with chance.
What about forecasting teams versus forecasting individuals?
o With good group dynamics, flat and non-hierarchical structures and a culture of sharing – teams were better than individuals – aggregation was important. In fact teams of super-forecasters could beat established prediction markets.
o The note of caution around low performing teams came when people were lazy, let others do the work or where susceptible to group-think.
“Unchartered : How to map the future together.”
Daryl Plummer of Gartner, a technology advisory firm who produces forecasts for customers who wish to discern hype from reality.
The prediction process starts with propositions, then verified, quantified and made actionable. A robust peer review occurs and 95% of predictions are modified along the way. Plummer routinely scrutinises predictions with actual events and these results are highlighted at conferences – championing the successes and sharing insights across those that were wrong. “Nobody here is hired because they’re psychic; they’re hired to generate insights that are useful – even if they turn out wrong. It’s useful to get you thinking”.
The author notes “that what matters most isn’t the predictions themselves but how we respond to them, and whether we respond to them at all. The forecast that stupefies isn’t helpful, but the one that provokes fresh thinking can be. The point of predictions should not be to surrender to them but to use them to broaden and map your conceptual, imaginative horizons. Don’t fall for them – challenge them.”
“How to Decide” : Annie Duke – Simple Tools for making better choices
The author presents some useful tips that teams can use to elicit uninfected feedback and leverage the true wisdom of the crowd in decision making. This is especially useful where key forecast & value chain insights and institutional knowledge is held across multiple SMEs and stakeholders;
The Problem;
“When you tell someone what you think before hearing what they think, you can cause their opinion to bend towards yours, often times without them knowing it”, “The only way somebody can know that they’re disagreeing with you is if they know what you think first. Keeping that to yourself when you elicit feedback makes it more likely that what they say is actually what they believe”, “To get high quality feedback it’s important to put the other person as closely as possible into the same state of knowledge that you were in at the time you made the decision”, “Belief contagion is particularly problematic in groups”
Tips to elicit those insightful cross-functional perspectives;
Elicit initial opinions individually and independent before the group meets. Specify the type of feedback or insights required and request an email or written thoughts be provided before meeting. Collate these initial opinions and share with group prior to meeting. Now focus on areas of “diversion”, “dispersion”, avoid using any language around “disagreement”
Anonymise feedback to group – this removes any influence from the insights or opinions of higher status individuals
Anonymising feedback also gives equal weight to insights and opinion and allows outside-the box perspectives to be heard
Anonymised feedback will also allow mis-understandings to be discussed and the team to grow in knowledge together
If the team needs to make a decision within a meeting; try
Writing down insights and passing to one person to write on a whiteboard – maintaining anonymity
Writing down your insights and pass to another person to read aloud to the group
If you must read your own thoughts to group – start with most junior member and work towards most senior
“Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making for an unknowable future”
Authors: John Kay & Meryn King
“The belief that mathematical reasoning is more rigorous and precise than verbal reasoning, which is thought to be susceptible to vagueness and ambiguity, is pervasive in economics”& Jean-Claude Trichet of the 2007-2008 GFC; “As a policy-maker during the crisis, I found the available models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: in the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools”
The authors draw a number of helpful lessons in the use of economic and financial models in business and in government;
Use simple models and identify key factors that influence an assessment. Adding more and more elements to a model is to follow the mistaken belief that a model can describe the complexity of the real world. The better purpose for a model is to find “small world” problems which illuminate part of the large world radical uncertainty
Having identified model parameters that are likely to make a significant difference to your assessment, go and do some research in the real world to obtain evidence on the value of these parameters to customers or stakeholders. Simple models provide flexibility to explore the effects of modifications or scenarios.
A model is useful only if the person using it recognises it does not represent the world as it is really is, rather it is a tool for exploring ways in which decisions might or might not go wrong.
Uncertainty : Howard Marks : https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos/
In his May 2020 newsletter to Oaktree Clients, Howard Marks notes the field of economics is muddled and imprecise, there are no rules one can count on to consistently show causation, patterns tend to repeat, and while they may be historical, logical and often observed, they remain only tendencies. Excessive trust in forecasts is dangerous.
When considering current forecasts, he notes the world is more uncertain today than at any other time in our lifetimes, the ability to deal intelligently with uncertainty is one of the most important skills, the bigger the topic (world, economy. Markets, currencies, interest rates) the less possible it is to achieve superior knowledge and we should seek to understand the limitations of our foresights.
A forecast is a statement about the future, a future we cannot know everything about , yet it remains a useful tool for decision making, scenario modelling, stress testing and planning. The map is not the territory, so with forecasting we should learn from better practices around collating diverse views and data, building cognitively diverse teams, constantly challenging assumptions, leverage the wisdom & insights of your subject matter experts, maintain intellectual humility & resiliency facing uncertainty, use models wisely and adopt a bayesian approach.
“No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.”
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Resilience
Mark Easdown writes about resilience. Individual, Enterprise & Ecosystem Strategy & Planning & Ways of working. Let’s explore some scenarios across individual resilience, ethical resilience & the resilience dividend. At the individual level, the global pandemic, economic downturns, recessions and increase in uncertainty and anxiety highlight the need for resilience. As Diane L Coutu “How Resilience Works”, (HBR May 2002) observes, resilient people have certain defining characteristics…
Article written by Mark Easdown
Individual, Enterprise & Ecosystem Strategy & Planning, Ways of Working
““The world breaks every one and afterward many are strong at the broken places.””
““Resilience is the capacity of any entity – an individual, a community, an organisation, or a natural system – to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses, and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience.””
““Don’t seek for everything to happen as you wish it would, but rather wish that everything happens as it actually will-then your life will flow well.””
“Kintsugi”: Kin meaning golden & tsugi meaning joinery, so “to join with gold”. In Zen aesthetics a different perspective emerges with broken ceramic pieces repaired using gold leaf and with great care thus highlighting the damaged history rather than hiding it. The object is given a fresh start, proudly wearing the flaws of its accident. Origins attributed to shogun of Japan, Ashikaga Yoshimitsu (1358-1408)
According to the Oxford English & Australian Concise Oxford Dictionaries, resilience is a noun, with key attributes;
Capacity to recovery quickly from difficulties, toughness
Ability of a substance or object to spring back into shape, elasticity
Recoiling, resuming original shape after bending, stretching, compression, shock, depression
Yet, the quotations above highlight a unique resilient frame of mind: “strong at the broken places” & “a fresh start, proudly wearing the flaws” & “don’t seek for everything to happen as you wish it would”. Judith Rodin believes “Resilience isn’t an inherited characteristic, it really is a skill” which would then enable you “to prepare for disruptions”.
Let’s explore some scenarios across individual resilience, ethical resilience & the resilience dividend.
At the individual level, the global pandemic, economic downturns, recessions and increase in uncertainty and anxiety highlight the need for resilience. As Diane L Coutu “How Resilience Works”, (HBR May 2002) observes, resilient people have certain defining characteristics;
They take a sober and down to earth look at the reality of the current situation
They search for and construct meaning for themselves and others, they build bridges to a better and fuller future
They continually improvise, they imagine new possibilities & put resources to new uses
Are resilient companies filled of optimistic people? Jim Collins in researching “Good to Great” sought counsel of Admiral Jim Stockdale to learn more…
“You must never confuse faith that you prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be”
Admiral Stockdale was a pilot whos’ plane was shot down over Vietnam in 1965, he endured 7 ½ years of captivity and torture and a POW. He organised a system of discipline & communications with fellow POWs, refusing even under torture to offer his captors any intelligence. He earned the Congressional Medal of Honour. He observed the POWs who broke fastest where the ones who deluded themselves about the reality and severity of their ordeal, they were optimistic they would be out by next week, next month, Christmas ..
The Stockdale Paradox, is that in the face of hardship you must;
Maintain clarity about your reality ….. however at the same time … Find positivity and hope for the future
In turning around demoralised workforce or lagging business performance, executives and teams must maintain a sober analysis of current state and conjure up a sense of possibilities and brighter future states.
Constructing meaning out of circumstance, continually improving and staying future focus
Austrian psychiatrist and Auschwitz survivor in his book “Man’s search for meaning” realised that to survive the camp, he created an imagine of himself delivering a lecture after the war on the psychology of the concentration camp to help others understand what they had been through, he constructed concrete goals and endured to deliver his vision.
In “Resilience: Hard won wisdom for a better life” by Eric Greitens, the story of Emil Zatopek shows us happiness and resilience can co-exist. In 1940 at age 18, he was forced by a coach at a Czech shoe factory to run his first race. Yet in adversity and during the race he discovered a love of running and a passion to succeed which set the direction of his life. Within 4 years he held Czech and world records. In the 1952 Olympics, he won the 5km and 10km and decided to run in his first marathon. He was an unorthodox runner, he wore his pleasure and pain for all to see, he crossed a line a winner in a world record time.
In our workplaces, mistakes are made, lack of frameworks and preparation, poor judgements and unintended consequences emerge. In “The Power of Ethics : How to make good choices in a complicated world”, Susan Liautaud gives us the following two real world examples and the need for frameworks around Ethical Resilience, the need for preventative measures, swift action and measures to recovery across leadership team and an organisation.
““Do the best you can until you know better. Then when you know better, do better””
Natasha’s Law (UK) & Ethical Resilience
On July 17 2016, Natasha Ednan-Laperouse aged 15 boarded a plane at Heathrow with her father and best friend for a vacation in south of France, they stopped to buy breakfast at Pret A Manger. She meticulously examined food labels as he had allergies to nuts, sesame seeds, dairy & bananas, her father double checked the label and there were no warning signs around the store. Tragically Natasha suffers a severe anaphylactic shock, her medicines nor shots of epinephrine would assist, French paramedics rushed her to Nice hospital where she died.
Sesame seeds had been baked into the dough of the baguette, this was not listed on the package nor visible on the bread. In September 2018, a coroner’s court found Pret A Porter have previously received 21 other instances of allergic reactions, 9 of which involved sesame seeds. Pret A Manager director or risk and compliance testified that the chain had acted in accordance to the law, highlighting differing labelling rules for food prepared in-store and off-site. So, the chain had adhered to food-labelling laws but fallen short of a higher ethical standard.
In October, CEO issued a public apology and instigated wide spread labelling of individual packaging, posted full ingredients online, promised to respond to allergy-related incidents and vowed to work with government, charities, peers to improve the law which emerged in 2019 was known as “Natasha’s law”.
The CEO was asked by author what steps might have been taken to have built ethical resilience and recovery; his response acknowledged earlier labelling expense concerns, preparing food in-store was to deliver quality and freshness to customer, there had also been concerns about complexity in compliance and in-house labelling with many vulnerabilities and potential points of error in value chain. The CEO acknowledged they should have delivered more than the law required, they should have been proactive and once they saw missteps – they should have told the truth, taken responsibility and moved forward with a plan to recover.
Microsoft conversational AI bot called Tay ( T= Thinking, A=About, Y=You) & Ethical Resilience
In 2016, Microsoft launched a social experiment in Tay, with the intention that the more people chatted with Tay the smarter its learning and natural language would evolve. In less than 16 hours, a particular type of attack saw Tay posting thousands of racist, sexist and anti-semitic comments via Twitter.
Microsoft immediately deleted posts, took Tay offline and apologised for “unintended offensive and hurtful tweets .. which do not represent who we are or what we stand for, nor how we designed Tay”. The company acknowledged it had not anticipated this sort of attack, but should have and outline lessons learned moving forward and the complexity of managing positives and negatives of AI systems.
The author highlights the very public cycle from resilience to recovery; Tell the truth, take responsibility and have a framework and make a plan to fix the problem or flaws.
Trends emerging at the start of the 21st Century have highlighted many crisis; pandemics, cyber-security attacks, storm damage, wildfires, systematic and structural failures that impact communities, cities & ecosystems. These trends can be amplified by;
movement of populations and urbanisation (stressing social cohesion, infrastructure and services)
complex adaptive & evolving systems, with both;
globalisation advancing and vulnerabilities for problems to spread quickly across the globe
climate change impacting fires, floods, storms & greenhouse gases
In response resilience is being studied across an ever-increasing landscape including: health & wellbeing, psychology, psychiatry, community & human development, change management & workplace, medicine, epidemiology, nursing, education, software and distributed systems, engineering. Infrastructure, economic development, environmental, leadership & strategy.
““In the twenty first century, building resilience is one of our most urgent social and economic issues because we live in a world that is defined by disruption. Not a month goes by that we don’t see some kind of disturbance to the normal flow of life.””
In her book “The Resilience Dividend”, Judith Rodin describes Resilience noting the thinking of ecology, engineering, psychology, systems thinking and adaptive cycles.
“Resilience is the capacity of an entity – an individual, a community, an organisation, or a natural system – to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience. As you build resilience, therefore you become more able to respond to those you can’t predict or avoid. You also develop greater capacity to bounce back from a crisis, learn from it, and achieve revitalisation. Ideally, as you become more adept at managing disruption and skilled at resilience building, you will be able to create and take advantage of new opportunities in good times and bad. That is the resilience dividend”
So, what attributes might an individual, community or organisation develop to be more resilient ?
AWARENESS : must be aware of strengths, assets, liabilities, vulnerabilities, the infrastructure, human and natural systems and a willingness to constantly re-assess, take in new information and adjust settings
DIVERSE: draw from a diversity not any core critical function (individual, organisation, community, capabilities, information sources, technical elements, people and ideas)
William Saito served as CTO of NAIIC and deeply involved in Fukushima power plant disaster with 2011 earthquake and tsunami. He maintains it was “group-think” that saw highly skilled and experienced engineers and administrators ignore warnings and place back-up generators in basement and susceptible to flooding.
INTEGRATED: The left hands must know what the right hand is doing & have alignment of goals, across systems, sectors, divisional or government silos. It needs to presence of feedback loops.
SELF REGULATING: these domains can withstand disruptions, anomalous situations and will not fail catastrophically. It is enhanced due to elements, planning or design
ADAPTIVE: capacity to adjust to circumstances, taking new actions, modifying behaviours, making improvements even before s disruption to avoid or mitigate effects.
The Vietnamese communities living in public housing in New Orleans had social and community networks in place for their >5,000 people which meant that roughly 80% had left the city before Hurricane Katrina arrived. The community showed resilience and adaptability in emergency accommodation solutions and then in the return, re-build and re-establishing of church and community.
The author provides a large number of real-world examples of what good looks like spanning: Readiness, response and revitalisation (which is a much fuller forward experience than just recovery), the need to get ahead of the threats (what can be reinforced? What can be practiced?), coordinated leadership and well-trained resources, acknowledging that a crisis will confound all plans and preparation and the importance of social cohesion – as friends, neighbours and colleagues are usually the first asked to respond.
The concept of resilience dividend has a dual meaning;
It shows the difference between how a disruptive incident, shocks, stresses affects communities / ecosystems who have made reliant-related investments & those communities who did not
Demonstrates the benefits to communities / ecosystems accrue such as jobs, social cohesion, infrastructure, equity , reduction of poverty and crime
Around the world, this co-benefit & resilience dividend is noted in the design of co-purposed infrastructure for example;
Amphitheatre, Cedar Rapids, Iowa is both flood control and an entertainment space & community gardens.
SMART Tunnel, Kuala Lumpur (SMART = Storm water Management and Road Tunnel) is a designed 3 section tunnel combining storm water flood drainage & motor vehicles on differing levels. In category 2 storms, which occur approximately 10 times pa, the tunnel transports both cars and flood waters in lower section. Whilst in category 3 storms, the road is closed and tunnel used for flood water flow.
Building resilience is key at the individual, enterprise and ethical levels. The resilience dividend is an important strategic concept.
In May 2018, the National Resilience Taskforce was established which sought to develop a national disaster mitigation framework to reduce the impact of disasters. A report emerged “Profiling Australia’s Vulnerability: The interconnected causes and effects of systematic disaster risk. As the report notes on page 41, “ More focus is needed on the intersections & interdependencies in the systems that support us, from local to global levels”
““We need to remember that the future is not pre-determined in any important sense. It is not an unknown land into which we totter unsteadily one day at a time, but an extension of the present that we shape by our decisions and our actions. The future is not somewhere we are going but something we are creating. We all have a role in shaping Australia’s future.””
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Article written by Mark Easdown
What does resilience and adaptability mean to you?
Common themes for 2021 off the back of the year we have had…resilience and adaptability. This article will explore what they mean (let’s get back to basics), how does it apply personally, how does it apply professionally and key practical tips to be more resilient and adaptable.
Common themes for 2021 off the back of the year we have had…resilience and adaptability. This article will explore what they mean (let’s get back to basics), how does it apply personally, how does it apply professionally and key practical tips to be more resilient and adaptable.
This all comes down to experience so keen to get your practical view and experience on this – what works and what doesn’t so we can share this as a community.
What does this mean?
Let’s go back to the basics, the dictionary.
Resilience is defined as:
the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness.
"the often remarkable resilience of so many British institutions"
the ability of a substance or object to spring back into shape; elasticity.
"nylon is excellent in wearability, abrasion resistance and resilience"
Adaptability is defined as:
the quality of being able to adjust to new conditions.
"adaptability is an advantage in the harshly competitive global economy"
the capacity to be modified for a new use or purpose.
"this is a good example of the adaptability of listed buildings"
How does it apply to me personally?
Change is constant.
Being able to adapt to change and deal with things life throws at you (resilience) is critical to your happiness and success. That doesn’t mean that you are always ok or you are always having a good day. It means that you take what life gives you and make the best of it. Some days this is not easy, other days it is.
Adaptability allows you to proactive change based on a change in circumstance.
It means embracing the change and looking for the positives, opportunities and way to make the best of the situation. It’s an important skill in your personal life for the challenges that life will throw at us.
My mother always told me …life is not fair…which I didn’t like and thought maybe she was wrong but I have learnt this also to be true. Life throws its challenge at everyone – what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger – but it’s how you bounce back is your true sense of character. Everyone has a story, everyone has tragedy – so that doesn’t make you unique but your response determines the impact to your life – if you are resilient you bounce back / recover quickly.
Most of you will resonate with this BUT it takes some difficulty in your life for you to really know and appreciate how resilient you are. Your inner strength, what you can deal with and how you respond normally surprises you – so be kind to yourself and reflect if this is true for you.
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.”
How does it apply to me professionally?
Managing organisational change – adapting, responding and showing resilience through change will make you a strong leader and role model in the organisation. It’s hard to find leaders that are happy to champion change. To be able to manage change well with your team you need to explain the why and how it impacts them and the team. Be a good communicator.
Leading by example & navigating your team through change – it ties into the managing organisational change but leading by example in words and actions and ensuring a clear message of leadership to your team. Teams go on a journey with change – people respond differently and go through various phases of responding to change as demonstrated by the change curve below. As a leader you are responsible to manage and help your team work through change to allow them to be both adaptable and more resilient.
“When something goes wrong in your life, just yell ‘Plot Twist’ and move on.”
Organisational change requires strong leadership, an ability to be decisive, communicate and take the employees on the journey with you. This is the role of the CEO and the leadership team and will define the success of a leadership team – the ability for them to make change and take the employees on the journey.
Practical Guide
At Whiteark we are all about creating practical guides and tools to apply for key principles. So see two below that we think are great for improving adaptability and resilience.
The 7 C’s of Resilience:
Dr Ginsburg, child paediatrician and human development expert, proposes that there are 7 integral and interrelated components that make up being resilient in Children that can apply to all of us – the detail is below:
Competence
People need to be seen when they are doing something right and to be given opportunities to develop specific skills. If people in business have a particular passion for something or aptitude for a specific skill, activity or sport, we need to recognise this and let them know we’ve noticed and encourage them.
Confidence
The solid belief in one’s own abilities is everything. As we teach and nurture, we build confidence. We need to be careful not to undermine confidence but develop it by pushing our team to achieve and creating age-appropriate opportunities for experiencing success.
Connection
When people are part of a community (class, team, club) they know they aren’t alone if they struggle and that they can develop creative solutions to problems. Close ties to family, friends, and building a sense of community at work can get team members sense of security.
Character
People need an understanding of right and wrong and the capacity to follow a moral compass. A fundamental sense of right and wrong helps people make wise choices, contribute to the world.
Contribution
The experience of offering their own service makes it easier for people to ask for help when they need it. Once people understand the feel-good factor of helping others, it becomes easier to ask for help when it’s needed – being willing to ask for help is a big part of being resilient. People who learn to cope effectively with stress are better prepared to overcome life’s challenges.
Coping
People need healthy coping strategies to manage their stress. Some strategies involve engaging and disengaging such as breaking down seemingly impossible problems and challenges into smaller, achievable pieces, avoiding things that trigger extreme anxiety, and just letting some things go.
Control
People need to feel like they have a degree of control over their lives and their environment. When they realise that they can control their decisions and actions, they’re more likely to know that they have what it takes to bounce back.
4 Ways to Boost Your Adaptability Skills
Change Your Thought Process. Let go of the “Well, that's the way we've always done it” mentality
Force Yourself to Take Risks. Little progress is made without risk. ...how do you encourage failure in our organisation and innovation as it’s powerful and important
Encourage Others to Be Open Minded. One of the best ways you can develop an open mind is to encourage others to do the same
Embrace Learning. Always learn from others, from situations and make the most of everything
Well it’s fair to say that resilience and adaptability are key skills to be successful in life and work – so very important.
These skills and the ability to be able to apply them in business will allow companies to respond to changes in market, customer and consumer expectations and unexpected financial or commercial issues that occur. Building a leadership team of resilient and adaptable people will be a key differentiator for an organisation.
Determine what kind of leader you want to be and be proactive in creating this. Start by having a think about what resilience and adaptability means to you? Join the conversation online by Searching for Whiteark on LinkedIn. Whiteark chat with a chief every week to learn from leaders in their field so if you want to learn from experienced leaders tune into The Chiefs podcast series.
At Whiteark we have hands on practical experience helping leaders to build resilience and adaptability. Please reach out for a no obligation conversation.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au