The key questions to ask - why? what? how?
Are you one of those people that asks a lot of questions – why are we doing this? What is this all about? And How are we going to deliver this? Simple words and questions but critical in all aspects of business. I have to admit it does annoy me when people ask too many questions, but it really is good engagement. It means they are engaged, they are listening and they want to understand the background.
Are you one of those people that asks a lot of questions – why are we doing this? What is this all about? And How are we going to deliver this? Simple words and questions but critical in all aspects of business. I have to admit it does annoy me when people ask too many questions, but it really is good engagement. It means they are engaged, they are listening and they want to understand the background.
Sometimes our communication gets so bogged down that it’s hard to follow – and it’s hard for people to come on the journey because they don’t understand the basics. As a leader being able to article the Why, What and How of a companies:
Strategy
Overall Plan
Particular Change
Is critical.
Right now as we run into the new financial year (for most companies) this comes more important. It’s a great opportunity to use these questions to speak to your team about the new financial year. To think about how to frame things up and get people onboard.
Why?
Definition of Why:
The cause, reason, or purpose for which know why you did it that is why you did it.
The power of the Why.
Employees are more focused than ever on the Why. Fundamentally why does this company exist? They are looking for value, purpose in why the company exists. Some companies have this and other companies this becomes a challenge. Do you understand your why? Does it resonate with the employees? Is it truthful and focused? Have you communicated it. It’s important that as a leader you understand the why and can articulate this to the team.
Simon Sinek famously talks about Starting with the Why in his famous books and ted talks.
Start With Why shows that the leaders who’ve had the greatest influence in the world all think, act, and communicate the same way — and it’s the opposite of what everyone else does. Sinek calls this powerful idea The Golden Circle, and it provides a framework upon which organizations can be built, movements can be led, and people can be inspired. And it all starts with WHY.
Why?
Definition of Why:
Asking for information specifying something.
The cause, reason, or purpose for which know why you did it that is why you did it.What are we going to deliver this year? What are the initiatives, what are the funding and plan of what we will deliver over the next 12 months. Being clear on the plan and how it links to the Why. Making sure what we are doing is linked with the Why is critical. If the What is not aligned to the Why it becomes meaningless.
Research has shown that companies that have more than 5 priorities deliver less than 18% of their plans. Being clear on your priorities and the alignment to the Why is critical. There is no point having a Why and What if you can’t deliver the how.
How?
Definition of How:
In what way or manner; by what means.
Maybe this is the most important question and people miss this step. If you have a clear why and what – how are you going to deliver? How are you going to operate (values, operating rhythm), what is the plan to get you there? How are linking strategy to execution to ensure the why and what build a plan on the how. The how is normally missed and means that you are not delivering the outcomes you want to achieve.
Most companies are focused on providing a ‘why’ for their teams. Finding that ‘purpose’, that reason to associate with the brand that is not about filling pockets of shareholders. This is a hard one. More and more there is a challenge for employers to represent meaning in working for their company. Employees are demanding this and Employers and trying to align the Why story…but it’s a struggle.
The ability to be able to communicate the
Why
What
How
consistently, effectively and in an aligned manner is critical.
Key things to think about when communicating with your employees:
Being able to articulate the Why of your company?
Being able to articulate the What – are you trying to achieve?
Being able to articulate the How – are you going to do this?
Keeping communication simple and consistent is critical. Take the time to ensure you understand and you articulate this to your employees.
Life's a journey - what does this mean?
One piece of advice my dad gave me, was to remember that life is a journey. It’s hard when you are 20 years old to really know what this means?
As I get older, a ripe old age of 42 I really consider this concept of journey. It’s an interesting one, very personal and something that evolves.
One piece of advice my dad gave me, was to remember that life is a journey. It’s hard when you are 20 years old to really know what this means?
As I get older, a ripe old age of 42 I really consider this concept of journey. It’s an interesting one, very personal and something that evolves.
The dictionary says that journey is – an act of travelling from one place to another. Where are we travelling too? What is this journey of life. Wow, very deep thing to think through.
I am not sure I have the degree to make an assessment on where we are heading, I can definitely focus on what this journey needs to look like, what is a successful journey.
In business, when we start a program we normally start by designing the end-state view – what does success look like, where are we heading and what are the key design principles that need to be determined in relation to this. This sets the course, direction and gives people something to anchor too. It makes decisions easier and allows people to work towards a common goal. I suppose life is not that simple – what is the end state you are building and what are the design principles to make decisions around your journey? Maybe that is why people talk about what you want people to say at your funeral, that is quite depressing but maybe they are trying to design this end state view to build the guardrails for the journey. On the journey of life it’s probably not that easy.
To define success for your journey, you should consider the following:
What makes you happy – do more
What are you good at – do more
What is aligned to your strengths – do more
What develops you / stretches you, in the right direction – do more
What allows you to associate with people that inspire and challenge you – do more
What makes you miserable – do less
What makes you uninspired – do less
What makes you focus on counting down the week – do less
You know in your gut it’s not good for you – do less
So many more rules you could apply, but you get the drift. You need to determine what you are going to do in your journey, it’s like a choose your own adventure book… you remember you can pick which direction you took the characters on. The reality is life, is like a choose your own adventure, but there are also things that you can’t control that will land in your lap and how you respond.
When thinking about the journey, people reference sprint versus marathon and ensuring you don’t go to quick you burn yourself out and you enjoy the journey. Everyone has a different pace, but sometimes you do need to slow down – for your health, for your family, to slow down to speed up, so people can keep up.
What is your pace?
Enjoying the journey, as you get older you realise that you need to enjoy the journey – life’s short. Time speeds up and making the best of every time you have in life is so critical. This means spending time with people that inspire, challenge and encourage you. Caring about their opinions but not listening to others. Embracing yourself, imperfections and all and do what makes you happy.
On the journey there will be great days, there will be speed humps and there will be an accident on the freeway that will stop you in your tracks. The hardest days are the ones that will demonstrate to yourself your tenacity, your passion and your ability to keep going. While you are in the moment, it will appear too much and once your through you will proud of your achievement.
Remember take time on the journey for a breather – to reflect what you have achieved, where you are and how you are going to continue on your journey. You continue to learn lessons, some the hard way that may change your journey, how you approach your journey or your destination.
Regardless of what you see on social media, no one has a perfect life. So be kind to yourself, to others and don’t compare, just enjoy your journey and make sure you have some great people on the way you can share the journey with!
I know that on my journey I want to make a difference to people’s life for the better. I am passionate about helping businesses optimise and I hope that I can leave a legacy in working with businesses to drive success.
How to Master Delivery
The plan is built, you have the budget, why can’t you deliver?
It’s the issue that is widely known, the easy part is building the plan and getting the money (well sometimes) but being able to deliver the plan is the hard thing. When the plan is unclear or money hard to get it’s a good excuse, when that’s done there are no excuses you need to be able to Execute.
At Whiteark this is where we see our clients need help and this is our sweet spot, being able to help deliver a program of work. There are 4 key steps that need to be taken to ensure the plan is successfully executed.
The plan is built, you have the budget, why can’t you deliver?
It’s the issue that is widely known, the easy part is building the plan and getting the money (well sometimes) but being able to deliver the plan is the hard thing. When the plan is unclear or money hard to get it’s a good excuse, when that’s done there are no excuses you need to be able to Execute.
At Whiteark this is where we see our clients need help and this is our sweet spot, being able to help deliver a program of work. There are 4 key steps that need to be taken to ensure the plan is successfully executed.
Key four steps:
Step 1: A detailed plan is required.
The plan must be very detailed and provide information on the following:
Tasks
Timeframe
Responsible Party
How success will be measured
Building out the program is critical with the required detail to measure if things are offtrack and the flow on impacts. Understanding key dependencies is critical and managing them as well (in this case Technology Services).
Step 2: The right capability must be identified to execute the plan
This might be a mix of internal capability, partners and other consultants but being clear on roles & responsibilities and having the right capability to:
Deliver the required outcome
Do it at a speed that is sustainable
Deliver the right outcome
Allow coaching and training so the team left behind after the project are upskilled and can do it without external help
Step 3: Flexibility to pivot, change direction & work some of the program out along the way is critical.
The original plan won’t work perfectly, the program needs to allow an element of flexibility when things don’t go to plan, you identify something else along the way.
Step 4: Sponsorship.
Strong sponsorship on the program. Executive sponsorship that is willing to go into battle will be critical. Absolutely critical. There will be roadblocks, issues that prevent the program moving and you need someone to move these out of the way and be focused on seeing the program deliver.
What we know from experience is?
All four steps are required to ensure effective execution. Things don’t always go to plan, but having a clear plan to be able to pivot or make changes in the program is critical.
But just start, the team will see change, will embrace the change and lean it but just start the program, piece of work and get delivering. It will give you credibility, and the naysayers will go quiet or change their tune.
Making change, transforming and the building the new is hard. It’s harder than you think but it’s rewarding, fun and definitely worth the effort from an organisation to put the right leadership to deliver.
Get the delivery right is critical. Sometimes it’s hard to know where to start, but once you start you’ll get the momentum to keep going.
At Whiteark, we love helping companies execute their plans. Taking the strategy and what success looks like (goals) and building a roadmap and plan that can be delivered. We coach and help businesses set up their program with test and trial and an approach that works for them. Our goal is to ensure they can execute and that the capability in the organisation is developed to own the go-forward.
Are you measuring what matters?
If it’s not part of your KPIs it’s probably not worth measuring.
Most of us have heard the phrase ‘what measures gets done’. Sounds simple right? But when it comes to measuring what matters, it gets a bit tricker
If it’s not part of your KPIs it’s probably not worth measuring.
Most of us have heard the phrase ‘what measures gets done’. Sounds simple right? But when it comes to measuring what matters, it gets a bit tricker.
There are many organisations that aren’t clear on what they should be measuring. An easy way to address this is by using my KPI scorecard – see the breakdown below.
1/ Alignment to Strategy
Ensure the metrics being measured align with your organisation’s strategy. For example, if you’re measuring organic traffic to your website but your strategy is all about driving leads via performance advertising, then this should be your first focus.
Every KPI should have a measurable lead indicator. Sure, you can measure outside of this, but put your KPI measurements first and ensure they are adequately resourced before looking at anything else.
2/ Set Targets
For each of the key metrics, set targets that are a stretch by achievable. These targets should align to a financial year; end of year target and monthly profile to deliver the end of year metric.
Look at your baseline for last fin year and then consider the environment you’re operating in now and what kind of % increase you think can realistically be achieved. Talk to the relevant experts in the business and ask them to help form a plausible growth scenario.
3/ Regular Measurement
When selecting what data outputs you’ll be measuring, get picky. There should be no more than 20 key metrics that a business reviews and measures each week. For metrics that aren’t performing; a detailed plan should be prepared for the next month to get the metric back on track.
4/ Refresh Your Metrics
Sticking to the same strategy all year isn’t always realistic. The beauty of measuring strategic outcomes each month allows for real time business decisions. This informed angle, means you can confidently pivot when necessary. If this is the case, update your metrics to align with these changes. And don’t forget to clearly document these changes and communicate them to the wider team. Especially those who are managing measurement.
TOP TIP
It’s important to note; while financial metrics are critical, non-financial metrics are also key drivers, working to align the overall vision and values of the organisation.
Stop Your Reporting
Once you’ve sorted your KPI scorecard, it’s time to take a step back. Most organisations have so much reporting that it doesn’t get reviewed or given the attention needed to make it valuable. This is a common problem and can also make the task of analysing data end up in the ‘too hard basket’.
So stop. Now that you have a clear idea of what you should be focussing on, everything else is just clutter. Put in place one weekly dashboard of the top 20 metrics that align to the business objectives. Provide performance and commentary for how each of the metrics are tracking. If you have a clear view on these, you’re much better off than measuring more but not reporting accurately.
Need a Starting Point?
Whiteark can help. We have a network of experts with practical experience implementing metrics measurements that matter to organisations. Whether it’s advice or hands-on assistance, the Whiteark team are your go-to for valuable data analysis. Contact whiteark@whiteark.com.au or 1300 240 047 to discuss.
Happy End of Financial Year.
It’s a great opportunity to reflect. What have I achieved this year. What am I most proud of. What is my biggest learning. Who has supported me this year – make sure you say thank-you. I always encourage my teams to update their CV every year – what have they learnt, where have they developed it’s a good way to remember all your achievements as well.
Happy end of Financial Year
– the clock strikes midnight on the 30th June…..Yipppppeeeeee.
I’m an accountant at heart, so 30th June is more exciting than New Years Eve. Why?
It’s a great opportunity to reflect. What have I achieved this year. What am I most proud of. What is my biggest learning. Who has supported me this year – make sure you say thank-you. I always encourage my teams to update their CV every year – what have they learnt, where have they developed it’s a good way to remember all your achievements as well.
It’s also a new beginning in some respects:
New budget
New goals / objectives
New priorities
New Funding
New Tax Year
There is an element in companies, where people need to wait until 1 July, until they can spend the money on the next project, phase or project or new recruitment. It’s kinda silly but you see how it happens as the funding aligns with the new financial year.
The new financial year, gives you a chance as a leader to reset with your team – to set them up on clear priorities, with clear goals and provide a chance for a reset, if things haven’t gone to plan in the old FY. Starting the year with clear priorities and goals is critical and defining what success is for the year for the company, department, team and individual.
Getting some momentum at the beginning of the Financial Year is critical, for people to see the pace has changed, that energises the team and resets the expectation on how the team is going to operate. Finding some quick wins at the beginning of the financial year for the team is a good focus as a leader.
Measuring what matters, makes sense. Many companies don’t do this well. Starting a new financial year allows you to reset the priorities of the company and ensuring that you are measuring lead and lag indicators – not to many metrics but the right ones. Having regular reporting with these metrics is critical and ensures changes can be made as required / and quickly to change the course of the outcomes
So why I love the end of financial year:
It’s a chance to reflect on the old year
It’s a chance to reset the ways you are doing things for the new year to make it bigger and better
It’s a change to set your team and organisation up for success
Are you ready for the new FY, the budget is approved:
Have you defined your success metrics
Have defined your reporting
Have you defined how you are going to operate
Have you engaged your team on this journey
Happy Financial Year – from the Whiteark team.
How should we think about Complexity? Is it complicated?
Mark Easdown writes about complexity. In the mid 1980s, a school of thought emerged around “Complexity” and “Complex Adaptive Systems” with the formation of the Sante Fe Institute, formed in part by former members of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The institute drew from multi-disciplinary domains and insights of : economics, neural networks, physics, artificial intelligence, chaos theory, cybernetics, biology, ecology and archaeology. Theories on Complexity and Complex Adaptive systems sought to develop common frameworks and understandings of physical and social systems that was an alternate to more linear and reductionist modes of thinking.
Article written by Mark Easdown
Business Planning, Mental Models, Ways of Thinking & Working
“A complicated system is the sum of its parts. You can solve problems by breaking things down and solving them separately. In a complex system, the properties of the whole are the result of interaction between the parts and the linkages and the constraints. In fact, in a complex system how things connect is more important than what they are. So, the properties of that emergent pattern can never be decomposed to the original parts.” David Snowden
“The problem is complexity (in financial markets) …we cannot prepare for every thread of causality through every interaction; in the speed of the event we find there is no time to make adjustments.” Richard Bookstaber
“Nature likes to over-insure itself. Layers of redundancy are the central risk management property of natural systems.” Nassim Taleb
In the mid 1980s, a school of thought emerged around “Complexity” and “Complex Adaptive Systems” with the formation of the Sante Fe Institute, formed in part by former members of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The institute drew from multi-disciplinary domains and insights of : economics, neural networks, physics, artificial intelligence, chaos theory, cybernetics, biology, ecology and archaeology. Theories on Complexity and Complex Adaptive systems sought to develop common frameworks and understandings of physical and social systems that was an alternate to more linear and reductionist modes of thinking. Members sought to better understand spontaneous, self-organising dynamics and found examples in the;
Natural World - Brains, Immune Systems, Ecologies, Cells, Developing Embryos and Ant colonies
Human World – Political parties, Scientific communities and in the economy
Why bother?
Just say you and your team are facing a complicated problem, then you may break down the problem into component parts, build an expert team internally or partner with external consultants, you may take a data driven or fact-based approach, you may identify best practices create a strategic plan and solve the problem incrementally. However, is that all? Is there a one size fits all solution to problem solving?
What if your problem could be categorised with traits such as;
Levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, unpredictability, dynamic interfaces - many diverse and independent parts that were interrelated, interdependent and linked through many interconnections into a network
The properties of the whole cannot be predicted from the behaviours of the component parts, in fact the network of many components may be gathering information learning and acting in parallel in an environment produced by these interactions – the system co-evolves within its environment
There may be significant political, social or external influences
“Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face.” David Snowden & Mary Boone
Where in the real world might it be useful to have sound thinking about complexity and solving problems?
In Project Management
Programs of work and problems to solve come in a variety of forms, at the simpler end of spectrum process re-engineering and best practices serve us well to achieve desired outcomes. Yet increasingly, our problems to solve are complicated, we need to analyse things to figure out what to do and cause and effect are distanced. Complex projects are harder still, they display behaviours such as self-organising, emergent properties, non-linear and phase transition behaviours. We need a different mindset, structure and strategy to wrestle with these problems.
In Financial Markets
These are complex adaptive systems, tightly coupled with unexpected feedback loops, with investors of different investment styles & horizons, the sum of the parts will not explain the whole in a linear manner, there are infrequent extreme price moves, not normally distributed.
In Nature
Complex collective behaviours are displayed when individual ants forage for food and lay down a pheromone trail on the way out from the colony and if successful finding food lay down even more on way back to the colony. Other ants follow this stronger pheromone trail to the food adding their pheromone. So, the pheromone trail becomes the whole colonies best path to food, it is an ant colony optimisation algorithm. Interestingly, this insight has helped form the basis of swarm intelligence and a wide array of solutions across routing and scheduling problems and bayesian networks.
The twenty-first century will be the "century of complexity" Stephen Hawking
COMPLEX PROGRAMS
“Strategy in complex systems must resemble strategy in board games. You develop a small and useful tree of options that is continuously revised based on the arrangement of the pieces and the actions of the opponent. It is critical to keep the number of options open. It is important to develop a theory of what kinds of options you want to have open” - John H Holland
In complex situations "cause and effect are only coherent in retrospect and do not repeat" - Sarah Sheard
Complex problems to solve are unique and they challenge some of the traditional approaches to program and risk management thinking, which may emphasise a need to identify risks in order to control them or completely plan and control programs of work. Examples of complex programs may include: computer systems and networks, buildings, bridges, planes, ships and automobiles.
Let’s take a look at what makes complex programs unique;
Sophisticated structures with many component parts interacting with each other, giving a degree of uncertainty whereby you may not know what you don’t know until it occurs
Unknowable interdependencies across domains, a need for agility and structures that favour the decentralised and local to the centralised approach.
There may be interfaces with complementary projects which present challenges in scheduling of these interconnected systems, teams and resources
The environment may have a political realm where new government decisions or public policy arises
So, what is a desirable mindset for complex programs?
A Forward focus, a willingness to proactively manage project development and critical issues through agility, collaboration and adaptability. You may need nuanced responses and local innovation.
Analysis of likely origins of complexity and thinking through dependencies, seek critical junctions, vulnerabilities & countermeasures. Contingency planning around time, buffering on sequencing, budget and people skills
Dynamic reporting and monitoring, a willingness to pick up early warning signs and take corrective actions
Communications will be dynamic, real time & high visibility (as small changes can have oversized consequences amplified by scale of some projects)
Program planning may have both a single view and multiple integrated project schedules
Cynefin is a framework to deal with predictable and unpredictable worlds (David Snowden)
In 1999, David Snowden described a framework and problem-solving tool which helps to adjust management style to fit circumstances, and has relevance across product development, marketing, organisational design and BCP/DR and crisis management. The framework had 5 domains;
OBVIOUS. Options are clear, steps to success are known, variables well known, cause-effect relationships are apparent, you are able to assess the situation, follow a procedure, categorise its type and base your response on best practice (processes & procedures) and feasible to achieve best possible result. Examples: Product mass production, cooking with a recipe, known scientific issues, known legal issues.
COMPLICATED. Solutions not obvious to everyone but most variables involved are well known, cause-effect relationships are apparent, you may assess a situation, build a diverse team or utilise experts to deliver the best response. The best that can be achieved is a good result, maybe not the best result. Examples: Existing product enhancements, coaching a team, adopting new approaches, hiring process.
COMPLEX. The context is often unpredictable, many factors uncertain, many variables may intervene, data may be incomplete, it may not be possible to determine right options, make predictions or find cause-effect relationships, there may be multiple methods to address issues. Exploring what has a proven record in past situations, small tests or business experiments, simple guidelines, brainstorming, innovation and creativity may drive solutions. Examples: weather predictions, stock markets, poker, epidemic controls.
CHAOTIC. The situation is where nobody knows what to expect, anything can happen, it is impossible to make predictions. You may have to act towards the urgent and important, then check and evaluate result before responding to that result and acting again. Examples: Innovate new products, anything which predicts people’s preferences or behaviours, crisis event and crisis management, warfare
DISORDER. The situation is not known, you need to firstly move to a known domain & gather more information.
COMPLEXITY IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
“In the last few years the concept of self-organising systems – of complex systems in which randomness and chaos seem spontaneously to evolve into unexpected order – has become an increasingly influential idea that links together researchers in many fields, from artificial intelligence to chemistry, from evolution to geology. For whatever reason, however, this movement has so far largely passed economic theory by. It is time to see how the new ideas can usefully be applied to that immensely complex, but indisputably self-organising system we call the economy” - Paul Krugman 1996
“By one estimate, 90% of international transactions were accounted for by trade before 1970, and only 10% by capital flows. Today, despite a vast increase in global trade, that ratio has been reversed, with 90% of transactions accounted for by financial flows not directly related to trade in goods and services.” - Didier Sornette 2003
“Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values. One provides a static picture, the other a dynamic one.” - George Soros
Financial markets have all the basic components of complex adaptive systems, namely:
Investors have differing investment strategies and horizons from trading at the speed of light to long term cyclical horizons. They take external information and combine it with their own strategic intent and these compete in financial markets => this is adaptive decision making
Financial markets is the aggregation of large-scale collective decision making and actions => these are developing, complex and emergent
Financial markets exist in a non-equilibrium state , are non linear, they experience non-frequent extreme price moves with the aggregate behaviour more complex than would be predicted by the sum of the individual parts.
Financial Markets are subject to feedback loops, where the result of one iteration becomes an input of next iteration
So, how has the emerging knowledge of complexity and financial markets framed regulators thinking?
The global financial crisis highlighted the complexity, leverage, inter-connected and tightly coupled of financial markets. In response we have seen;
Efforts to reduce interconnectedness (intra-day local trading halts, regional collateral exchanges)
Enhanced capital rules (increased contingency buffers and incentives for some activities to be managed by non-bank sector & efforts to reduce concentration of risks)
Enhanced liquidity rules (increase quantum and quality of contingency buffers)
Speed, agility and quantum of central bank and treasury initiatives to address market panics and crisis
A re-think of the rule-making complexity and mental models applied to finance;
“Modern finance is complex, perhaps too complex. Regulation of modern finance is complex, almost certainly too complex. That configuration spells trouble. As you do not fight fire with fire, you do not fight complexity with complexity. Because complexity generates uncertainty, not risk, it requires a regulatory response grounded in simplicity, not complexity. Delivering that would require an about-turn from the regulatory community from the path followed for the better part of the past 50 years. If a once-in-a-lifetime crisis is not able to deliver that change, it is not clear what will.” - Andrew Haldane Bank of England Speech 2012 “ The Dog and the Frisbee” [https://www.bis.org/review/r120905a.pdf ]
COMPLEXITY IN NATURE
In her TED Talk, Deborah Gordon: The emergent genius of ant colonies: highlights an example of a complex adapative system with no central control or management in an ant colony: [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukS4UjCauUs]
So, what is the strategy of the ant colony to constantly adapt to its complex environment? As per Deborah Gordon studies;
The ant colony allocates simple roles
At any given time 25% are patrolling, foraging and doing maintenance, 25% are inside with queen ant doing maintenance and looking after larvae, and finally 50% appear to be contingency and in reserve, able to surge as required to collect more food, patrol or more maintenance.
Communications are not centralised, they are dynamic, simple and local rules to adapt to emergent environment
The process is noisy, messy, imperfect and requires individual dynamic communications
Ant colonies can learn at the individual level by trial and error over many generations but this can nurture collective memory and problem-solving skills. The local instructing the central.
“So, the key to unlocking the efficiency of a leaderless system will rely on, among other things: clear role definition, flexible task allocation, a sense of responsibility toward the group, and shared understanding and response to communication patterns. Organizations would need to make an incredible investment in their employees, and vice versa.” Amanda Silver – Organising complexity – How Ant colonies self-manage. [https://medium.com/swlh/organizing-complexity-how-ant-colonies-self-manage-50455358f3cd]
How we should think about complex domains is still evolving, a multi-disciplinary lens across research and practice has been adding to this knowledge pool for decades. It is a vital enquiry for humankind, especially as our challenges become more complex to solve and our climate is as a complex adaptive system.
‘“he climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all. At the global level, it is a complex system linked to many of the essential conditions for human life.”- Pope Francis 2015
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Driving value creation
Jo Hands writes all about driving value creation. Value creation is a word that’s used a lot, but what does it mean? Creating value - customer, consumer and financial. When a company buys a business, they focus on value creation. The business case assumes that there is value to create. This value can be created by pulling either strategic or operational levers.
Value creation is a word that’s used a lot, but what does it mean? Creating value - customer, consumer and financial. When a company buys a business, they focus on value creation. The business case assumes that there is value to create.
Value can be created by pulling either strategic or operational levers:
Mergers and Acquisitions: Buy-and-build deals are where a Private Equity firm buys a company and aims to enhances that platform through add-on acquisitions.
Strategic Pricing: Strategic pricing incorporates best pricing practices and ensures that your pricing strategies, analytics and processes complement your business strategy. A product’s price is based on the value to the customer, or on competitive strategy, rather than on the cost of production. By creating strategic pricing policies, analytics, and processes, you can directly capture customer value and translate to shareholder value.
Distribution Strategy: Distribution strategy is a plan to make a product or a service available to the target customers through its supply chain - to make sure the it can reach the maximum potential customers at minimal or optimal distribution costs. A good distribution strategy can maximise your revenue and profits.
Geographic Expansion: With access to new markets, a business has the potential to build a new customer base.
Product Strategy: A product strategy outlines the desired outcomes to be achieved by the product including the end-to-end vision, and how it supports the company’s strategic objectives. The product strategy is brought to life through the product road map and can be used to support any tactical decisions that the company needs to make.
Product Innovation: Product innovation represents a new way of solving a problem a high number of consumers have:
There are no products on the market that address the problem statement - unexplored market spaces could potentially generate high profits or;
There may be other products on the market that address the problem but in a different way to your innovative solution
Digital Transformation: Digital transformation is the use of technology — software enabled, connected, transactions, and interactions, across all areas of a business. The goal of digital transformation is disrupting existing business models, improving customer experience, and creating operational efficiency to drive economic value creation.
Customer Segmentation: the benefits of customer segmentation include focus, competitiveness, expansion, retention, communications effectiveness and profitability.
Aftermarket Service Strategy: The concept of aftermarket service is as important as sales, the saying “it takes years to build a reputation but just moments to ruin it” addresses the importance of keeping a customer happy and satisfied. Aftermarket service does not generate any revenue for the company, but it increases the goodwill in the market and amongst the customers.
Data Strategy: Data strategy is a central, integrated concept that articulates how data will enable and inspire business strategy.
Pricing Optimisation: Price optimisation is the practice of using data from customers and the market to find the most effective price point for a product or service that maximizes value for customers and sales or profit for the company.
Sales Force Effectiveness: Sales force effectiveness is driven by the decisions, processes, systems and programmes that sales leaders are accountable. By managing sales force effectiveness drivers, companies can build high-quality sales teams that better meet customer needs, increase productivity and successful conversion, and consequently result in improved turnover and EBITDA margins.
Procurement & Managing Suppliers: Smart procurement practices are fundamental for companies across all industries to optimise operational efficiencies and improving EBITDA margin.
Product Portfolio Optimisation: Product portfolio optimisation helps managers assess their products’ current level of success - it provides a centralized view of an entire suite of products against the prevailing marketplace for those products. Effective product portfolio optimisation highlights future opportunities for improved resource allocation, greater returns, growth and profit, and reveals products that are generating a negative contribution.
Operational Efficiencies: Operational efficiency refers to a company’s ability to reduce waste in time, effort and materials as much as possible, while still producing a high-quality service or product. Financially, operational efficiency is the ratio between the input required to keep the company going and the output it provides. When improving operational efficiency, the output to input ratio improves. The greater the operational efficiency, the more profitable a company becomes as it can generate greater income or returns for the same or lower cost.
Cost to Serve: Cost to Serve focuses on aggregate analyses around a blend of cost drivers. The analysis exposes the variation in customer demands for different activities and has a different cost profile. Without understanding the cost to serve a customer, a company is unable to determine the value that customer is contributing to their business.
The value levers are a great way of prioritising what's important.
The levers that drive the biggest value result in an improved performance that leads to greater valuation.
If you are:
1. Getting your business ready for sale
Executing initiatives that drive value and can be in the run rate results will result in a higher sale price
2. Buying a business.
Your investment case is critical to drive the appropriate acquisition price. This will also drive what transformation program looks like once the business has been bought to ensure the business case is achieved/exceeded
3. Running your own business.
Driving value is what you do everyday but sometimes it's easy to miss the levers to pull to achieve the greatest success.
At any point of a business lifecycle it's imperative that driving value is something you focus on to drive consistent and stable earnings with a positive trend.
Article by Jo Hands, Co-Founder Whiteark
Looking for more support? Download our Private Equity Playbook for the ultimate guide to value creation.
Looking to create value in your organisation? Let us help.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes. We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business.
Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
The war is real...
Jo Hands writes all about the war on talent - and it’s no joke. This time last year (May 2020) companies were downsizing, reducing pays, making employee take annual leave and in survival mode. Employees were worried about the security of their jobs. The whole dynamic has shifted. It's an employee market. Why and what does this mean?
This time last year (May 2020) companies were downsizing, reducing pays, making employees take annual leave – in short, they were in survival mode. The result? Employees across the world were worried about the security of their jobs.
But now, the whole dynamic has shifted. It's an employee market.
So why and what does this mean?
The Why.
Companies are recruiting
Lack of international talent working in Australia
Employers are focused on getting people back to the office
The economy is going strong
People are looking for flexibility and more money
The What.
What does this shift mean for employers…
Companies
The recruitment market is hot and therefore companies need to position themselves to attract the right / best talent
Companies need to build a talent plan to retain good people - it needs to be different, new and tailored
Finding the right talent is critical for success of delivering the strategy for the organisations
Companies need to be clear on their point of difference for working for them
Staff / candidates want to understand what flexibility means - what are your policies and how it practically works
Companies might need to consider partnering to get the right capability if market tight
Building a positive culture has never been so important and critical to ensure you retain and attract amazing talent
Employees / Candidates
People are looking for a sea change, reassessing their priorities and rethinking how much they are working and where they work
People aren't looking for the normal perks as priorities have changed
It's an employee / candidate market - be clear on what you want from your job, position yourself right and look for the perfect company
Smile and enjoy the process and do your pros / cons to make a good decision about what company to you with
People play an important role in the success of your business. In fact, without them you wouldn't have a business a business at all. So be proactive to really think about the changes you are making to responding to the shift.
As a leader you need to lean in to ensure you understand where your team is up to and ensure you take a proactive approach.
The war is real, are you ready to fight?
Article by Jo Hands, Co-Founder Whiteark
Looking to capitalise on these trends and plan your own people strategy? Let us help.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes. We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
The Problem Is …. How to Solve It?
Mark Easdown writes about problem solving… Good problem solving needs: cognitive diversity, valuing dissent to mitigate consensus “fails” & “group think”, a clear approach in stressful situations, switch thinking or adding some randomness to process, a healthy power relationship (no hubris or silencing of opposition, a need for participative management & subordinate assertiveness training), multiple approaches to problem solving …
Article written by Mark Easdown
Individuals, Teams & Enterprise, Mental Models, Ways of Working
““A problem well put is half solved.””
““I think that there is only one way to science – or to philosophy, for that matter: to meet a problem, to see its beauty and fall in love with it; to get married to it and to live happily, till death do ye part – unless you should meet another and even more fascinating problem or unless, indeed, you should obtain a solution. But even if you do obtain a solution, you may discover, to your delight, the existence of a whole family of enchanting, though perhaps difficult, problem children …””
““By operating without a leader the scout bees of a swarm neatly avoid one of the greatest threats to good decision making by groups: a domineering leader. Such an individual reduces a group’s collective power to uncover a diverse set of possible solutions to a problem, to critically appraise these possibilities, and to winnow out all but the best one.””
““Probably he played it the way he did because it was not a good piano. Because he could not fall in love with it he found another way to get the most out of it.” ”
Did you know ?
3M has a “flexible attention” policy (take a walk, nap, play a game) as they know creative ideas and problem solutions can sneak up on us as we pay attention to something else. Ideas flow between silos with engineers rotated between departments each few years.
Problem solving is a process followed to find solutions to difficult or complex issues.
What might that look like ?
Variances & deviations from desired outcomes – this may be pleasant (an opportunity) or unpleasant (Apollo 13)
For a problem to be solved suggests some precision in description, identification, root cause
Maybe we have a criterion that our best explanation or lived experience just fails to meet
An exploration of problem solving uncovers useful practices, shines a light on power structures and reveals a wider array of human perceptions, traits & group dynamics;
Author Charlan Nemeth in “No! , The power of disagreement in a world that wants to get along” highlights the case of United Airlines Flight 173, in the days before Christmas in 1978 flying from NY to Portland Oregon, USA. As the plane approached Portland it lowered the landing gear and the cockpit heard a large thump with the plane vibrating and rotating. The pilot questioned the landing gear, aborted landing and put the plane into a holding pattern. For 45 minutes, pilot and crew investigated the flight panel & landing gear problem yet overlooked the fact the plane proceeded to run out of fuel, falling out of sky, killing 10 people of the 196 on board, just six miles from airport. How can this problem solving go so tragically wrong?
Good problem solving needs: cognitive diversity, valuing dissent to mitigate consensus “fails” & “group think”, a clear approach in stressful situations, switch thinking or adding some randomness to process, a healthy power relationship (no hubris or silencing of opposition, a need for participative management & subordinate assertiveness training), multiple approaches to problem solving (broad information search, multiple alternatives considered), a human tendency to not see a solution if it is at odds with majority judgement, the very action of voicing dissent with conviction will alter the perception & awareness of others.
Maybe the way things “are” differ from our best thinking or theory on the way things “should be” .
Let’s take a look at Problem Solving & Mental Models across a few domains; In Adversity, In Manufacturing, In Investment Markets and In Nature
Producing your finest problem solving & improvisation, driven on by adversity
“”Messy : How to be creative and resilient in a tidy-minded world””
In January 1975, 17 year old Vera Brandes stood on the stage of the Cologne Opera House, awaiting a full house, as the youngest concert promoter in Germany. Vera had convinced American Jazz Pianist, Keith Jarrett to perform a solo recital, had arranged the grand concert hall, invited 1,400 people and arranged for delivery of a very specific & artist requested Bosendorfer 290 Imperial concert grand piano.
The problem for Vera’s project was that the opera house staff had wheeled out the wrong piano and gone home. They had wheeled out a small piano which would not produce enough sound to reach the furthest balconies, the piano was out of tune, the black notes in the middle of the keyboard didn’t work, the piano pedals were stuck – it was unplayable. In the scarce time before the concert, the local piano tuner concluded that given the heavy rain outside, a substitute piano would not survive the transitional trip from nearby storage facility.
Technicians spent several hours trying to make the piano sound halfway decent, the high and low notes jangled, the piano pedals malfunctioned and even the performer was suffering from several days of back pain and wearing extra spinal support. Understandably Keith Jarrett refused to play, but Vera Brandes cajoled, pacified & pleaded and at 11-30pm the concert finally began.
So with Vera Brandes project flashing bright red, what problem solving skills did Keith Jarrett deploy to overcome sub-optimal & malfunctioning tools ?
As the author says “ The minute he played the first note, everybody knew this was magic”, “It was beautiful and strange”, “ The Koln concert album has sold 3.5 million copies, no other solo jazz album nor piano solo has matched it”, “Jarrett really had to play the piano very hard to get enough volume to the balconies”, “ ….”handed a mess, Keith Jarrett embraced it, and soared”.
Toyota Business Practices (TBP) – A problem solving model
Toyota has a rich and deep history of instruction, values, actions shared, practiced, experienced and refined by many staff across many cultures around the world. Its Best Practices are constantly evolving. Toyota Business Practices are an example of tangible approaches to daily work, the essence of TBP is a problem solving model. Whilst a mastery is achieved across time and through daily work and with a mindset of drive and dedication, a basic summary includes the following elements;
Toyota defines “a problem” as a gap between the current state (as is) and future/ideal state (to be). The concept of problem is not viewed as a negative, as to find problems and to take countermeasures to eliminate them leads to continuous improvement.
““No one has more trouble than the person who claims to have no trouble””
A summary of the basic steps of Toyota Problem Solving, 2006 includes;
1. Clarify the Problem: requires understanding and pre-emptive thinking around: Ultimate Goal (what is the contribution, the purpose, how is it realised and for whom?), Current Situation ( talk to people involved, observe, concrete terms) & Ideal Situation ( a clear standard result to be achieved after problem is solved, it is a concrete & achievable and contributes to the ultimate goal)
2. Break down the Problem: requires qualitative and quantitative analysis, prioritise and break down bigger problem into smaller and more concrete ones to observe and find the point of occurrence
3. Set a Target: A target is measurable & states by when & is challenging in nature
4. Analyse the Root Cause: look at the point of occurrence & cascade thinking through asking why & seek peer review. If the countermeasures are applied to something other than root cause – this leads to wasted effort and resources
5. Develop countermeasures: develop many versions, select highest value-add & compliance, build consensus , make clear action plans
6. See countermeasures through: implement with concerted efforts, speed & persistence, share information, inform, report and consult, trial and error to expected results
7. Monitor results & process: ensure targets achieved, understand reasons for success or failure and accumulate continuous improvement knowledge
8. Standardise Successful Process: establish new standard and start next round of continuous problem solving / PDCA
““I have found it helpful to think of my life as if it were a game in which each problem I face is a puzzle I need to solve. By solving the puzzle, I get a gem in the form of a principle that helps me avoid the same sort of problem in the future. Collecting these gems continually improves my decision making, so I am able to ascend to higher and higher levels of play in which the game gets harder and the stakes become ever greater.” ”
Ray Dalio – Principles & Problem Solving in Investment Management
In 1975, Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates which went on to become the world’s largest hedge fund by 2005. He is known as a successful investor, innovator and aimed to structure global portfolios with uncorrelated investment returns, with allocations based on risk analysis rather than by asset classes. In 2011, Ray & Barbara Dalio established a philanthropic foundation and pledged to donate more than half their fortune in their lifetimes. In 2011, he self-published on-line his philosophy of investment which evolved to be an acclaimed 2017 book “Principles” on corporate management and investment. An overview of the framework Ray Dalio approaches problem solving includes;
1. Have Clear Goals: You cannot have everything – prioritise, don’t conflate your goals with just desires and decide what you really want, setbacks are important to making progress – in bad times you may need to modify goals to preserve what you have.
2. Identify & don’t tolerate problems: a useful mind hack if that painful problems are usually a good signpost you have a problem worth diagnosing and improving, don’t avoid problems as they are rooted in harsh and unpleasant realities, be precise and specific with your problem description, pull apart causes and the real problem, fix problems that yield biggest returns and take care small problems are not symptoms of larger ones, failing to address a problem has the same consequences as failing to identify it.
3. Diagnose problems to get at their root causes: don’t jump immediately into solution mode, identify “what” before commencing “what to do about it”, you must identify the root cause – not proximate ones, sometimes you will find the root cause is people or system or process, it can be a painful journey to resolution
4. Design a Plan: visual what you need to do to achieve goals, what needs to change to produce better outcomes, there are possibly many pathways – you just need to find one that works, create a narrative and time lines, identify tasks that connect to the narrative to achieve goals.
5. Push through to completion : you will need self-discipline, good work habits (well organised, to-do lists, priorities) are vastly underrated, establish clear metrics, have another monitor your results, as you discover new problems – repeat
Dalio’s problem solving mental models also covers: self-awareness (knowing your weakness & staring into them is a first step to success), seek to understand what your missing, be humble & radically open-minded (address ego and blind spot barriers), beware of harmful emotions, first learn then decide, simplify, use principles, determine who you should be listening to and what is true, be very specific about problems – don’t start with generalisations, convert your principles into algorithms and have these make decisions alongside you.
“The Waggle Dance” – Nest site selection & group decision making
In the 1950s, Martin Lindauer published a study on house hunting by honey bees and observed that bee scouts perform “waggle dances” on the surface of a swarm to advertise potential new nest sites. Advancing this research Cornell biologist Thomas Seeley noted the process was “complicated enough to rival the dealings of any department committee”, as potentially 10,000+ bees will relocate and need an efficient process to narrow alternatives and mitigate risks of bad decisions. When a hive gets too crowded, its queen and half the hive will swarm to a nearby tree and wait for several hundred scouts to go house hunting. Seeley notes “the bee’s method, which is a product of disagreement and contest rather than consensus and compromise, consistently yields excellent collective decisions”
Let’s explore the bee’s problem to solve;
The bee colony survival is as stake, so an accurate decision is required. New home must be suitable for rearing brood and storing honey and offer protections from: predators, thieves and bad weather.
A speedy decision is required, as the more hours the entire hive is exposed to elements it loses energy and reserves
A unified choice is required. Communications and contestability are crucial, a split decision could be fatal
What can bees teach us about problem solving & decision making?
Whilst the problem to solve is of a clear and stable nature, information may be incomplete or inaccurate
Information in a complex environment may be constantly evolving and changing
Bees use hundreds of independent, widely distributed scouts who return with heterogeneous information (differing constituents, dissimilar components, non-uniform in composition) which may be better or worse and is shared with other scouts by way of a waggle dance, no scout is stifled & the swarm leverages its collective intelligence.
So, how do they find consensus as any individual scout has only direct experience with select potential sites, yet many are examined and considered?
It is in the friendly competition between scouts and the various coalitions all vying for favoured sites, the exercise is not solved with “group-think”, rather a scout may leave the swarm cluster and go to examine potential site to judge its merit. There is no need for an individual scout to have a macro global view of all alternatives, nor a need to tally and compare votes – it is the smarts of the swarm working as individuals or collectives making speedy, accurate and unified assessments.
To recap
As we have seen across multiple domains and across several mental models, problems are not necessarily a bad thing – sometimes they are a pathway to travel to deliver quality strategic outcomes, sometimes they are a link in a chain of continuous improvement (kaizen), if they are material they must be addressed to mitigate severe consequences (Flight 173, Investment Returns and bee hive nest selection), a structure and process is very useful, to solve problems will often reveal some uncomfortable truths about the nature of the individuals, the group, power structures, communications and these must also be confronted and resolved.
Yet, as Keith Jarrett demonstrated bringing passion, intelligence, skill, pragmatism and persistence to problem solving, can yield your teams greatest moment. White Ark is here to help you.
When Richard Feynman faces a problem, he's unusually good at going back to being like a child, ignoring what everyone else thinks... He was so unstuck --- if something didn't work, he'd look at it another way." --- Marvin Minsky, MIT
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Forecasting
Mark Easdown writes about forecasting. The prediction process starts with propositions, then verified, quantified and made actionable. A robust peer review occurs and 95% of predictions are modified along the way. Plummer routinely scrutinises predictions with actual events and these results are highlighted at conferences – championing the successes and sharing insights across those that were wrong. “Nobody here is hired because they’re psychic; there hired to generate insights that are useful – even if they turn out wrong. It’s useful to get you thinking”.
Article written by Mark Easdown
Decision Making & Planning, Ways of Working with Uncertainty
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.”
“There is great value in bringing together people who attempt to address a common problem of forecasting from different perspectives and based on very different kinds of data.”
“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won’t come in.”
“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
“I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much indetermined and unpredictable, to a pretence of exact knowledge that is likely to be false.”
“The Lucretius underestimation, after the Latin poetic philosopher who wrote that the fool believes that the tallest mountain there is, should be equal to the tallest one he has observed.”
A forecast is a statement about the future. (Clements & Henry, 1998)
As authors of “Forecasting” (J.Castle, M.Clements, D.Henry) note; a forecast can take many forms;
Some are vague and some are precise, Some are concerned with near term and some the distant future
“Fore” denotes in advance whilst “Cast” might sound a bit chancy (cast a fishing net, cast a spell) or might sound more solid (bronze statues are also cast)
Chance is central to forecasting & forecasts can and often do differ from outcomes
Forecasts should be accompanied by some level of certainty/uncertainty, time horizon, upper/lower bounds
The domain in which the forecast occurs matter, especially if no-one knows the complete set of possibilities
The authors consider the history of forecasting;
Forecasting likely pre-dates recorded writing with hunter-gatherers seeking where game of predators might be, edible plants and water supplies. Babylonians tracked the night sky presumably for planting and harvesting crops
Sir William Petty perhaps introduced early statistical forecasting in 17th Century and thought he observed a seven year “business cycle”
Weather forecasting evolved with Robert Fitzroy in 1859, who sought to devise a storm warning system to enable safe passage of ships and avoid loss of vessels &/or ships staying in port unnecessarily. Forecasting of nature extended to hurricanes, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.
Yet, history is littered with failures in forecasting, large and small;
Ambiguous forecasts from Oracles of Delphi and Nostradamus
UK storms 1987, with lives lost and approximately 15million trees blown down
Failure to predict 1929 Great Depression or severity of Global Financial Crisis, mid-2007 to early 2009
“When the Paris exhibition closes, the electric light will close with it and no more be heard of it” – Sir Erasmus Wilson & “a rocket will never be able to leave the earth’s atmosphere” – NY Times 1936
What do we want from forecasts ?
Do we want just accuracy? To what degree is that even possible across complicated and complex domains?
Do we want cognitively diverse teams to make us more aware of extreme events? Thus, minimising downside risks?
Do we just want comfort, ideological support and evidence of our existing beliefs? Do we want entertainment?
Do we want to influence a target audience, shift consensus or established beliefs?
These answers may differ if you are a CEO, CFO, Head of Sales, Head of Innovation, an Insurance Actuary, Epidemiologist, Politician, Economist, Intelligence Agency, Shock Jock or Sports Commentator.
For example, it was a mainstream view of epidemiologists across last 20 years that a pandemic was a prominent risk;
“The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the re-emergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.”- David Epstein 2007
https://davidepstein.com/lets-get-ready-to-rumble-humanity-vs-infectious-disease/
https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/20/4/660.full.pdf
So, is COVID19 perhaps SARS2? Clearly, forecasting a pandemic is desirable. How do we give prominence to diverse voices & data and what are the better practices to observe and implement?
SUPER-FORECASTING
In October 2002, the US National Intelligence Estimates (a consensus view of the CIA, NSA, DIA and thirteen other agencies with > 20,000 intelligence analysts) concluded that the key claims of the Bush Administration claims about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq were correct. After invading Iraq in 2003, the US found no evidence of WMDs. “It was one of the worst – arguably the worst - intelligence failure in modern history” notes Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in their book “Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction”
In 2006, IARPA was formed to fund cutting-edge research with the aim of potentially enhancing the intelligence community work. IAPRA’s plan was to create a tournament-style incentive for top researchers (intelligence analysts, universities & a team of volunteers for the Good Judgement Project (GJP)), to generate accurate probability estimates to questions that were;
Neither so easy that an attentive reader of the NY Times could get them right , nor
So hard that no one on the planet could get them right
Approximately 500 questions spanned: economic, security, terrorism, energy, environmental, social and political realms
Forecast performance was monitored individually and in teams, and Tetlock’s GJP team proved 60% more accurate in year 1, 78% more accurate in Year 2.
What did these forecasting tournaments learn about the attributes of super-forecasters that may be of relevance in Commercial or Government organisations? Here are a few;
Superforecasters spoke in probabilities of how likely an event would occur (not in absolutes : yes/no), this better enabled them to accept a level of uncertainty – it made them more thoughtful and accurate
Superforecasters were often educated yet ordinary people with an open-mind, an ability to change their minds, humility and an ability to review assumptions & update forecasts frequently, albeit at times by small increments
Actions which were helpful included;
Breaking the question down into smaller components and identifying the known and the unknown, focus on work that is likely to have better payoff, actively seek to distinguish degrees of uncertainty, avoid binding rules. Consider the “outsiders” view, frame the problem not uniquely but as part of a wider phenomena
Examine what is unique about problem and look at your opinions and how they differ from other people’s viewpoints. Take in all the information with your “dragonfly eyes” and construct a unified vision, balancing arguments and counterarguments, balancing prudence and decisiveness – generating a description as clearly, concisely and as granular as possible
Don’t over-react to new information – a Bayesian approach was useful
The GJP found that while many forecasters were accurate within a horizon of 150 days, not even the super-forecasters were confident beyond 400 days, forecasts out to 5 years were about equal with chance.
What about forecasting teams versus forecasting individuals?
o With good group dynamics, flat and non-hierarchical structures and a culture of sharing – teams were better than individuals – aggregation was important. In fact teams of super-forecasters could beat established prediction markets.
o The note of caution around low performing teams came when people were lazy, let others do the work or where susceptible to group-think.
“Unchartered : How to map the future together.”
Daryl Plummer of Gartner, a technology advisory firm who produces forecasts for customers who wish to discern hype from reality.
The prediction process starts with propositions, then verified, quantified and made actionable. A robust peer review occurs and 95% of predictions are modified along the way. Plummer routinely scrutinises predictions with actual events and these results are highlighted at conferences – championing the successes and sharing insights across those that were wrong. “Nobody here is hired because they’re psychic; they’re hired to generate insights that are useful – even if they turn out wrong. It’s useful to get you thinking”.
The author notes “that what matters most isn’t the predictions themselves but how we respond to them, and whether we respond to them at all. The forecast that stupefies isn’t helpful, but the one that provokes fresh thinking can be. The point of predictions should not be to surrender to them but to use them to broaden and map your conceptual, imaginative horizons. Don’t fall for them – challenge them.”
“How to Decide” : Annie Duke – Simple Tools for making better choices
The author presents some useful tips that teams can use to elicit uninfected feedback and leverage the true wisdom of the crowd in decision making. This is especially useful where key forecast & value chain insights and institutional knowledge is held across multiple SMEs and stakeholders;
The Problem;
“When you tell someone what you think before hearing what they think, you can cause their opinion to bend towards yours, often times without them knowing it”, “The only way somebody can know that they’re disagreeing with you is if they know what you think first. Keeping that to yourself when you elicit feedback makes it more likely that what they say is actually what they believe”, “To get high quality feedback it’s important to put the other person as closely as possible into the same state of knowledge that you were in at the time you made the decision”, “Belief contagion is particularly problematic in groups”
Tips to elicit those insightful cross-functional perspectives;
Elicit initial opinions individually and independent before the group meets. Specify the type of feedback or insights required and request an email or written thoughts be provided before meeting. Collate these initial opinions and share with group prior to meeting. Now focus on areas of “diversion”, “dispersion”, avoid using any language around “disagreement”
Anonymise feedback to group – this removes any influence from the insights or opinions of higher status individuals
Anonymising feedback also gives equal weight to insights and opinion and allows outside-the box perspectives to be heard
Anonymised feedback will also allow mis-understandings to be discussed and the team to grow in knowledge together
If the team needs to make a decision within a meeting; try
Writing down insights and passing to one person to write on a whiteboard – maintaining anonymity
Writing down your insights and pass to another person to read aloud to the group
If you must read your own thoughts to group – start with most junior member and work towards most senior
“Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making for an unknowable future”
Authors: John Kay & Meryn King
“The belief that mathematical reasoning is more rigorous and precise than verbal reasoning, which is thought to be susceptible to vagueness and ambiguity, is pervasive in economics”& Jean-Claude Trichet of the 2007-2008 GFC; “As a policy-maker during the crisis, I found the available models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: in the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools”
The authors draw a number of helpful lessons in the use of economic and financial models in business and in government;
Use simple models and identify key factors that influence an assessment. Adding more and more elements to a model is to follow the mistaken belief that a model can describe the complexity of the real world. The better purpose for a model is to find “small world” problems which illuminate part of the large world radical uncertainty
Having identified model parameters that are likely to make a significant difference to your assessment, go and do some research in the real world to obtain evidence on the value of these parameters to customers or stakeholders. Simple models provide flexibility to explore the effects of modifications or scenarios.
A model is useful only if the person using it recognises it does not represent the world as it is really is, rather it is a tool for exploring ways in which decisions might or might not go wrong.
Uncertainty : Howard Marks : https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos/
In his May 2020 newsletter to Oaktree Clients, Howard Marks notes the field of economics is muddled and imprecise, there are no rules one can count on to consistently show causation, patterns tend to repeat, and while they may be historical, logical and often observed, they remain only tendencies. Excessive trust in forecasts is dangerous.
When considering current forecasts, he notes the world is more uncertain today than at any other time in our lifetimes, the ability to deal intelligently with uncertainty is one of the most important skills, the bigger the topic (world, economy. Markets, currencies, interest rates) the less possible it is to achieve superior knowledge and we should seek to understand the limitations of our foresights.
A forecast is a statement about the future, a future we cannot know everything about , yet it remains a useful tool for decision making, scenario modelling, stress testing and planning. The map is not the territory, so with forecasting we should learn from better practices around collating diverse views and data, building cognitively diverse teams, constantly challenging assumptions, leverage the wisdom & insights of your subject matter experts, maintain intellectual humility & resiliency facing uncertainty, use models wisely and adopt a bayesian approach.
“No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.”
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Resilience
Mark Easdown writes about resilience. Individual, Enterprise & Ecosystem Strategy & Planning & Ways of working. Let’s explore some scenarios across individual resilience, ethical resilience & the resilience dividend. At the individual level, the global pandemic, economic downturns, recessions and increase in uncertainty and anxiety highlight the need for resilience. As Diane L Coutu “How Resilience Works”, (HBR May 2002) observes, resilient people have certain defining characteristics…
Article written by Mark Easdown
Individual, Enterprise & Ecosystem Strategy & Planning, Ways of Working
““The world breaks every one and afterward many are strong at the broken places.””
““Resilience is the capacity of any entity – an individual, a community, an organisation, or a natural system – to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses, and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience.””
““Don’t seek for everything to happen as you wish it would, but rather wish that everything happens as it actually will-then your life will flow well.””
“Kintsugi”: Kin meaning golden & tsugi meaning joinery, so “to join with gold”. In Zen aesthetics a different perspective emerges with broken ceramic pieces repaired using gold leaf and with great care thus highlighting the damaged history rather than hiding it. The object is given a fresh start, proudly wearing the flaws of its accident. Origins attributed to shogun of Japan, Ashikaga Yoshimitsu (1358-1408)
According to the Oxford English & Australian Concise Oxford Dictionaries, resilience is a noun, with key attributes;
Capacity to recovery quickly from difficulties, toughness
Ability of a substance or object to spring back into shape, elasticity
Recoiling, resuming original shape after bending, stretching, compression, shock, depression
Yet, the quotations above highlight a unique resilient frame of mind: “strong at the broken places” & “a fresh start, proudly wearing the flaws” & “don’t seek for everything to happen as you wish it would”. Judith Rodin believes “Resilience isn’t an inherited characteristic, it really is a skill” which would then enable you “to prepare for disruptions”.
Let’s explore some scenarios across individual resilience, ethical resilience & the resilience dividend.
At the individual level, the global pandemic, economic downturns, recessions and increase in uncertainty and anxiety highlight the need for resilience. As Diane L Coutu “How Resilience Works”, (HBR May 2002) observes, resilient people have certain defining characteristics;
They take a sober and down to earth look at the reality of the current situation
They search for and construct meaning for themselves and others, they build bridges to a better and fuller future
They continually improvise, they imagine new possibilities & put resources to new uses
Are resilient companies filled of optimistic people? Jim Collins in researching “Good to Great” sought counsel of Admiral Jim Stockdale to learn more…
“You must never confuse faith that you prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be”
Admiral Stockdale was a pilot whos’ plane was shot down over Vietnam in 1965, he endured 7 ½ years of captivity and torture and a POW. He organised a system of discipline & communications with fellow POWs, refusing even under torture to offer his captors any intelligence. He earned the Congressional Medal of Honour. He observed the POWs who broke fastest where the ones who deluded themselves about the reality and severity of their ordeal, they were optimistic they would be out by next week, next month, Christmas ..
The Stockdale Paradox, is that in the face of hardship you must;
Maintain clarity about your reality ….. however at the same time … Find positivity and hope for the future
In turning around demoralised workforce or lagging business performance, executives and teams must maintain a sober analysis of current state and conjure up a sense of possibilities and brighter future states.
Constructing meaning out of circumstance, continually improving and staying future focus
Austrian psychiatrist and Auschwitz survivor in his book “Man’s search for meaning” realised that to survive the camp, he created an imagine of himself delivering a lecture after the war on the psychology of the concentration camp to help others understand what they had been through, he constructed concrete goals and endured to deliver his vision.
In “Resilience: Hard won wisdom for a better life” by Eric Greitens, the story of Emil Zatopek shows us happiness and resilience can co-exist. In 1940 at age 18, he was forced by a coach at a Czech shoe factory to run his first race. Yet in adversity and during the race he discovered a love of running and a passion to succeed which set the direction of his life. Within 4 years he held Czech and world records. In the 1952 Olympics, he won the 5km and 10km and decided to run in his first marathon. He was an unorthodox runner, he wore his pleasure and pain for all to see, he crossed a line a winner in a world record time.
In our workplaces, mistakes are made, lack of frameworks and preparation, poor judgements and unintended consequences emerge. In “The Power of Ethics : How to make good choices in a complicated world”, Susan Liautaud gives us the following two real world examples and the need for frameworks around Ethical Resilience, the need for preventative measures, swift action and measures to recovery across leadership team and an organisation.
““Do the best you can until you know better. Then when you know better, do better””
Natasha’s Law (UK) & Ethical Resilience
On July 17 2016, Natasha Ednan-Laperouse aged 15 boarded a plane at Heathrow with her father and best friend for a vacation in south of France, they stopped to buy breakfast at Pret A Manger. She meticulously examined food labels as he had allergies to nuts, sesame seeds, dairy & bananas, her father double checked the label and there were no warning signs around the store. Tragically Natasha suffers a severe anaphylactic shock, her medicines nor shots of epinephrine would assist, French paramedics rushed her to Nice hospital where she died.
Sesame seeds had been baked into the dough of the baguette, this was not listed on the package nor visible on the bread. In September 2018, a coroner’s court found Pret A Porter have previously received 21 other instances of allergic reactions, 9 of which involved sesame seeds. Pret A Manager director or risk and compliance testified that the chain had acted in accordance to the law, highlighting differing labelling rules for food prepared in-store and off-site. So, the chain had adhered to food-labelling laws but fallen short of a higher ethical standard.
In October, CEO issued a public apology and instigated wide spread labelling of individual packaging, posted full ingredients online, promised to respond to allergy-related incidents and vowed to work with government, charities, peers to improve the law which emerged in 2019 was known as “Natasha’s law”.
The CEO was asked by author what steps might have been taken to have built ethical resilience and recovery; his response acknowledged earlier labelling expense concerns, preparing food in-store was to deliver quality and freshness to customer, there had also been concerns about complexity in compliance and in-house labelling with many vulnerabilities and potential points of error in value chain. The CEO acknowledged they should have delivered more than the law required, they should have been proactive and once they saw missteps – they should have told the truth, taken responsibility and moved forward with a plan to recover.
Microsoft conversational AI bot called Tay ( T= Thinking, A=About, Y=You) & Ethical Resilience
In 2016, Microsoft launched a social experiment in Tay, with the intention that the more people chatted with Tay the smarter its learning and natural language would evolve. In less than 16 hours, a particular type of attack saw Tay posting thousands of racist, sexist and anti-semitic comments via Twitter.
Microsoft immediately deleted posts, took Tay offline and apologised for “unintended offensive and hurtful tweets .. which do not represent who we are or what we stand for, nor how we designed Tay”. The company acknowledged it had not anticipated this sort of attack, but should have and outline lessons learned moving forward and the complexity of managing positives and negatives of AI systems.
The author highlights the very public cycle from resilience to recovery; Tell the truth, take responsibility and have a framework and make a plan to fix the problem or flaws.
Trends emerging at the start of the 21st Century have highlighted many crisis; pandemics, cyber-security attacks, storm damage, wildfires, systematic and structural failures that impact communities, cities & ecosystems. These trends can be amplified by;
movement of populations and urbanisation (stressing social cohesion, infrastructure and services)
complex adaptive & evolving systems, with both;
globalisation advancing and vulnerabilities for problems to spread quickly across the globe
climate change impacting fires, floods, storms & greenhouse gases
In response resilience is being studied across an ever-increasing landscape including: health & wellbeing, psychology, psychiatry, community & human development, change management & workplace, medicine, epidemiology, nursing, education, software and distributed systems, engineering. Infrastructure, economic development, environmental, leadership & strategy.
““In the twenty first century, building resilience is one of our most urgent social and economic issues because we live in a world that is defined by disruption. Not a month goes by that we don’t see some kind of disturbance to the normal flow of life.””
In her book “The Resilience Dividend”, Judith Rodin describes Resilience noting the thinking of ecology, engineering, psychology, systems thinking and adaptive cycles.
“Resilience is the capacity of an entity – an individual, a community, an organisation, or a natural system – to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience. As you build resilience, therefore you become more able to respond to those you can’t predict or avoid. You also develop greater capacity to bounce back from a crisis, learn from it, and achieve revitalisation. Ideally, as you become more adept at managing disruption and skilled at resilience building, you will be able to create and take advantage of new opportunities in good times and bad. That is the resilience dividend”
So, what attributes might an individual, community or organisation develop to be more resilient ?
AWARENESS : must be aware of strengths, assets, liabilities, vulnerabilities, the infrastructure, human and natural systems and a willingness to constantly re-assess, take in new information and adjust settings
DIVERSE: draw from a diversity not any core critical function (individual, organisation, community, capabilities, information sources, technical elements, people and ideas)
William Saito served as CTO of NAIIC and deeply involved in Fukushima power plant disaster with 2011 earthquake and tsunami. He maintains it was “group-think” that saw highly skilled and experienced engineers and administrators ignore warnings and place back-up generators in basement and susceptible to flooding.
INTEGRATED: The left hands must know what the right hand is doing & have alignment of goals, across systems, sectors, divisional or government silos. It needs to presence of feedback loops.
SELF REGULATING: these domains can withstand disruptions, anomalous situations and will not fail catastrophically. It is enhanced due to elements, planning or design
ADAPTIVE: capacity to adjust to circumstances, taking new actions, modifying behaviours, making improvements even before s disruption to avoid or mitigate effects.
The Vietnamese communities living in public housing in New Orleans had social and community networks in place for their >5,000 people which meant that roughly 80% had left the city before Hurricane Katrina arrived. The community showed resilience and adaptability in emergency accommodation solutions and then in the return, re-build and re-establishing of church and community.
The author provides a large number of real-world examples of what good looks like spanning: Readiness, response and revitalisation (which is a much fuller forward experience than just recovery), the need to get ahead of the threats (what can be reinforced? What can be practiced?), coordinated leadership and well-trained resources, acknowledging that a crisis will confound all plans and preparation and the importance of social cohesion – as friends, neighbours and colleagues are usually the first asked to respond.
The concept of resilience dividend has a dual meaning;
It shows the difference between how a disruptive incident, shocks, stresses affects communities / ecosystems who have made reliant-related investments & those communities who did not
Demonstrates the benefits to communities / ecosystems accrue such as jobs, social cohesion, infrastructure, equity , reduction of poverty and crime
Around the world, this co-benefit & resilience dividend is noted in the design of co-purposed infrastructure for example;
Amphitheatre, Cedar Rapids, Iowa is both flood control and an entertainment space & community gardens.
SMART Tunnel, Kuala Lumpur (SMART = Storm water Management and Road Tunnel) is a designed 3 section tunnel combining storm water flood drainage & motor vehicles on differing levels. In category 2 storms, which occur approximately 10 times pa, the tunnel transports both cars and flood waters in lower section. Whilst in category 3 storms, the road is closed and tunnel used for flood water flow.
Building resilience is key at the individual, enterprise and ethical levels. The resilience dividend is an important strategic concept.
In May 2018, the National Resilience Taskforce was established which sought to develop a national disaster mitigation framework to reduce the impact of disasters. A report emerged “Profiling Australia’s Vulnerability: The interconnected causes and effects of systematic disaster risk. As the report notes on page 41, “ More focus is needed on the intersections & interdependencies in the systems that support us, from local to global levels”
““We need to remember that the future is not pre-determined in any important sense. It is not an unknown land into which we totter unsteadily one day at a time, but an extension of the present that we shape by our decisions and our actions. The future is not somewhere we are going but something we are creating. We all have a role in shaping Australia’s future.””
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Will Covid-19 make or break you?
Jo Hands writes about Covid19 - and whether it will make or break you… We have had a year of ambiguity and we will never go back to ‘normal’ for some industries and companies this has meant growth / opportunities and for others it has been meant something quite different.
We have had a year of ambiguity and we will never go back to ‘normal’ for some industries and companies this has meant growth / opportunities and for others it has been meant something quite different.
Regardless of how I have been impacted professionally; everyone has been impacted personally. This experience could have been positive or not so much.
However I believe we are in the fork in the road…which path are you going to take?
We are now in May 2021 and you need to be clear is Covid19 going to make or break you?
What we know:
The world has changed
Companies have changed
Households have changed
How we think about work/life has changed
A lot has changed
We are not going back to ‘normal’
There is ambiguity
Consumer/Customer expectations have changed
How we respond?
Our initial response is survival – what do we need to do to survive Covid19 – personally and professionally. The focus was on being able to survive and working out how to work with teams remotely.
The response then shifted to thrive – how do to create opportunity. Restaurants moved to delivery, takeaway and industries and businesses pivoted. Looking for opportunities to capitalise/optimise the business.
We are now living with ambiguity but businesses need to start revisiting its strategy, priorities and operations to ensure it is maximising its results. We don’t have all the answers, we don’t know what normal is but continuing to move forward, make decisions and pivoting on changes is critical.
Key things to ensure you consider:
Customer/consumer expectations & how this has changed. Use data to validate.
Do you need to rethink your supply chain, suppliers and how you source your key services/goods?
How can you make your operations more cost effective?
Do you need to rethink your talent strategy – what do you need to own, what can be outsource/partnering
Measuring what matters and report regularly so changes can be made?
How do we maximise the cash flow of the business? Focus on short term and long-term initiatives to drive improvement in cashflow
Revisiting investments to ensure it supports new priorities reviewing investments to ensure it supports new priorities and ensure aligned return on investment.
As a leader in an organisation it’s imperative that you take decisive action to ensure you set up your business for success. Running scenario analysis and understanding the ‘what if’ are important to understand how you will pivot if something changes.
It’s a chance to relook at priorities, operating model and how you measure success for your business. It’s the chance to show strong leadership with your organisation and team and ensure it maximise it chance for success.
Need support in your organisation? Reach out.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article by Jo Hands, Co-Founder Whiteark
Prospective Hindsight and the Pre-Mortem
Mark Easdown writes about Prospective Hindsight and the Pre-Mortem. Given the importance and value of improving the decision-making process, researchers, social scientists and psychologists set about leveraging the findings of prospective hindsight studies and try to identify a framework upfront to identify your decisions that might lead to poor outcomes and create a safe environment for dissent in views.
Article written by Mark Easdown
Business Strategy, Leadership, Collaboration, Ways Of Thinking & Working
““We don’t rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training.” - Greek lyrical poet, Archilochus.
Or restated: ‘you do not rise to the challenge, you fall to the level of preparedness’”
““If you want a man to keep his head when a crisis comes you must give him training before it comes” ”
““Hope for the best, plan for the worst” ”
In a nutshell, What is Prospective hindsight?
It is the generation of an explanation, reason, narrative for a future event (as if it had already happened). As if one had taken a time machine forward and looked backwards.
A simple and effective example this shift in thinking is provided in the below 1989 study: ……. “ consider predicting the winner of the first basketball game of a championship series. Before the game predicting the winner is based on general factors: match-ups between key players, team strengths and weaknesses, etc. Even past games are used to identify factors relevant to the imminent contest. After the game it's a different story. The defeat of one team is explained both by these general factors and by specific events like Player A's early foul trouble Player B's 'off night', too much inactivity since the team won its previous series, etc. Such events are too numerous to anticipate beforehand and to relevant to ignore afterward.”
Your executive and team makes sense of its environment by observing what happens and reasoning why these things have happened. Your CFO or COO may have a deeper understanding of business drivers and processes and possess greater explanatory skills whilst your new recruit may generate a new fresh insight with less knowledge of the context.
We usually explain the past (why did this occur) and predict the future (what if scenarios). We analyse the past often to draw meaning and insights to apply to forward thinking. Strategically, it would be very beneficial if we could improve how we anticipate future events and help us make more successful decisions and next steps.
Back to the Future : A Prospective Hindsight study, 1989
In 1989, Deborah Mitchell, Edward Russo and Nancy Pennington undertook a study: “Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events”; on how people think and what role does certainty play in people generating reasons, explanations, narratives about an event? If people generate more explanations about past events, is this because the event had happened in the past? Or because of the certainty with which people think about things in the past? The experiment findings were;
Certainty matters more than past of future in itself
People who thought about a future event with certainty generated more reasons and explanations than those who considered a past event with uncertainty
Adding certainty added 30% more reasons and twice as many action-based reasons than abstract reasons
“Winning Decisions, Getting it right the first time”, Russo & Shoemaker, 2002
An experiment found prospective hindsight generated 25% more reasons for the following questions;
“How likely is it a woman will be elected the leader of your country in the first election after the next one” Think about all the reasons why this might happen. For specificity, provide a numerical probability.
&
“Imagine that the first election after the next one has occurred and a woman has been elected the leader of your country. Think about the reasons why this might have occurred. Then provide a numerical probability of this actually occurring”
Given the importance and value of improving the decision-making process, researchers, social scientists and psychologists set about leveraging the findings of prospective hindsight studies and try to identify a framework upfront to identify your decisions that might lead to poor outcomes and create a safe environment for dissent in views. In 1992, Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist developed a pre-mortem risk assessment approach.
The Pre-Mortem
The pre-mortem framework and strategy;
Considers the reasons around why something might fail, enhances collective intelligence of the group
Encourages prospective thinking (rather than retrospective thinking) , leverages findings of studies in field
Consider upfront future events before a decision is made (things within your control and outside your control)
Considers factors that have resulted in the failure of a project or initiative, all voices are equal
Creates a safe environment for participants to utilise expertise, experience and intuition to aid decision making
If you choose a multi-disciplinary and cross functional team of participants what will fall out of this process are valuable insights into weaknesses in current state business environment and processes, the new initiative and any integration concerns. This exploration of the initiative, the pre-mortem findings, the countermeasures proposed will also likely reveal the positivity and attitude of participants to the project. The process liberates participants to speak up whereas in other situations they would feel they were not seen as team-players.
The basic steps
Gary Klein suggests some basic steps;
Bring together a diverse and informed team familiar with decision or initiative
Imagine a worst-case scenario (embarrassing & devastating), Imagine a crystal ball good enough to see failure but not the reasons
Ask team members to spend some time independently and silently generating reasons for the failure
Collate and consolidate a comprehensive list of concerns and issues
With a prospective viewpoint, the team is now able to reconsider plan/initiative and countermeasures
Keep revisiting the list, which keeps the possibility of failure alive and reduces overconfidence or group-think
It is not the steps followed, the importance of pre-mortems is in the ability to switch thinking and the prospective hindsight viewpoint.
Daniel Kahneman (2002, Nobel prize winner and expert in judgement and decision making) describes a simpler version;
…. When the organisation has almost come to an important decision but has not formally committed itself, Klein proposes gathering a brief group of individuals who are knowledgeable about the decision. The premise of the session is a short speech: “Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster. Please take 5 to 10 minutes to write a brief history of that disaster”
In which domains might pre-mortems be valuable?
Program and Project Management
Ongoing risk analysis, risk mitigation measures, addressing weaknesses and integration issues
Improving structural integrity of initiative and identify opportunities, quicker responses through project lifecycle
Pre-emptively, in any domain that a “Post Implementation review” or “Post Mortem” is undertaken
Product Development and launch
Workshop 6-month ahead scenarios ; “Product failed to launch”, “Product failed to deliver”
Flawed beliefs may emerge, may be an alternate way to deal with ambiguity, highlight potential failure points, enhances greater collective awareness
With findings run mini experiments on pilot, devise risk mitigation and test app, take small bets, perhaps UX professionals can de-risk initiative
Investment Opportunities
Mitigate group-think, ensure a sufficient range of alternative model input assumptions, approaches and viewpoints considered, enhance investment business case, mitigate downside risks, poor practices and avoid making material mistakes, record findings and revisit frequently
Strategy, Resilience and Risk Management
Workshop “Kill the company” or “Kill the budget” or “Kill the forecast”, “Risk Management: BCP, DR, Contingency Planning” identify ways in which these could fail, identify the challenges, points of failure, assumptions and develop mitigation plans
Complement a HAZOP; Hazard and Operability Study to see how system and plant deviate from design intent and may create risks to manage
Workshop new strategic partnership proposal covering pricing, inventory, distribution, commercial size and acumen of partner, mutual ways of working
Strategic planning tool for innovation and risks for domains such as : environmental, social, ethical, economic or empowerment
So, is this pre-mortem just another to-do list or a glass half empty view of the world?
Certainly, throughout history success has derived through good mental models, pre-empting and avoiding mistakes, inverted and switch thinking and leveraging prospective hindsight;
““... prevention is worth a pound of cure” ”
““The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way””
““When I begin my work in the morning, I expect to have a successful and pleasant day of it, but at the same time I prepare myself to hear that one of our school buildings is on fire, or has burned, or that some disagreeable accident had occurred, or that someone has abused me in a public address or a printed article, for something that I have done or omitted to do, or something that he had heard that I had said—probably something I had never thought of saying.””
““Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there? Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail instead–through sloth, envy, resentment, self-pity, entitlement, all the mental habits of self-defeat. Avoid these qualities and you will succeed. Tell me where I’m going to die so I don’t go there.” ”
Pre-Mortems might be a useful tool business hack that could take as little as 30-90 minutes or multiple sessions, perhaps it might be your unfair advantage, your “low-cost and high-payoff kind of thing” (see below).
Gary Klein: “The premortem technique is a sneaky way to get people to do contrarian, devil’s advocate thinking without encountering resistance. “
Daniel Kahneman: “The premortem is a great idea… in general, doing a premortem on a plan that is about to be adopted won’t cause it to be abandoned. But it will probably be tweaked in ways that everybody will recognize as beneficial. So, the premortem is a low-cost, high-payoff kind of thing.
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
Practical Wisdom: Making sense of the eco-system
Mark Easdown writes about practical wisdom: making sense of the eco-system. Leadership should not wait for a crisis, for revenues and budgets to go off-track to engage the wider views. Pandemic of 2020, has been a great example of leadership teams who have been forced to stop, listen and reach out across their ecosystem (customers, employees, suppliers, relationships with banks and government) and to re-invent and re-imagine themselves.
Article written by Mark Easdown
Business Strategy, Leadership, Collaboration, Ways Of Thinking & Working
““It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.””
““Without this texture of experience, the data shoved before these executives’ eyes loses any truth. Context and colour are absent; all that remains are abstract representations of the world rather than the world itself.””
““Practical wisdom,” Aristotle told us, “is the combination of moral will and moral skill.””
What is it when you encountered an executive team, your boss, a colleague, a team member, a peer displaying these following characteristics;
Understanding the context, the enterprise strategy and how to serve the common good
A balancing of conflicting directives, interpretation of rules in light of the situation
Perception, sharing others views, see the shades of grey, can apply practical solutions to particular problems
Does the right thing because it was the right thing to do, with the interest of the common good in front of mind
Applies wisdom, knowledge and experience, learnings from previous mistakes to a specific context
It is Practical Wisdom in action…
Aristotle (384-322 BC) in the Nicomachean Ethics distinguishes between three types of knowledge:
Episteme (universal, theoretical understanding),
Techne (skill, craft, technique understanding)
Phronesis (practical wisdom, prudence, ethical knowledge, rational, linked to the senses, to perceive, to deliberate and action orientated).
His basic ingredients of Practical Wisdom were: Knowing one’s role or objective, perception of particular situations, an informed intelligence, learning from experience, deliberation on the best course of action, it is not enough just to be wise, you must actually do it.
Practical Wisdom has evolved through time with the writings of Thomas Aquinas and many modern-day scholars, thought leaders and business schools.
So, Why (Where) is Practical Wisdom still relevant and of interest today?
Practical Wisdom within law-making
In 2019, the final report of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry was handed down by Commissioner Kenneth Hayne. The report underscores many fundamental themes;
Importance of boards getting the right information and challenging management (yet adds the caution: “Often, improving the quality of information given to boards will require giving directors less material”)
A call to arms to fix corporate culture (assess culture and governance, identify problems, deal effectively with problems, set the tone from the top, ensure ongoing and robust reviews)
Remuneration and Incentives tell staff what the company values
Best interests of a company is not a binary choice between the customer and shareholders
Commissioner Hayne offered the following practical wisdom/principles to guide a review of ethics and conduct for boards and business leaders;
Obey the law
Do not mislead or deceive
Be fair
Provide services that are fit for purpose
Deliver services with reasonable care and skill
When acting for another, act in the best interests of that other
Practical Wisdom and the role of leaders
Wisdom, knowledge and experience are required for leadership and managerial decision making in; goal setting and an integrated view (including an ethical, moral and societal view), pricing policies (fair & equitable outcomes, supporting strategy (grounded in data plus context), budgeting (dealing with uncertainty, unpredictability, models and assumptions), leading through crisis (need for eco-system thinking) staff wellbeing ( the individual needs and the common good), strategic partnership balanced scorecards (ability to see through conflicting scores at what is really important in relationship).
Leadership should not wait for a crisis, for revenues and budgets to go off-track to engage the wider views. Pandemic of 2020, has been a great example of leadership teams who have been forced to stop, listen and reach out across their ecosystem (customers, employees, suppliers, relationships with banks and government) and to re-invent and re-imagine themselves.
Often when things start going wrong, there is an inclination is to either make more rules to prevent certain outcomes occurring or to put in smarter incentives to encourage the right outcomes. Practical Wisdom can be a guide when many conflicting rules appear at odds with the underlying principle & enterprise strategy (see Starbucks example).
““The problem with a rule-book based approach is that it actively undermines practical wisdom. When people become used to complying with policies, they stop thinking for themselves. This is probably in part behind the terrible incident at a Starbucks in Philadelphia when a manager called the police to remove two black men. Racism was clearly a factor, but the incident began when the manager refused to allow one of the men to use the restroom, in accordance with company policy that they were for customers only. Had the manager followed the principle of hospitality, which should be at the heart of the coffee chain’s ethos, rather than one of its policies, the situation would probably not have escalated””
Practical Wisdom and desirable characteristics of individuals and teams
How might your organisation better consider virtues and practical wisdom in the recruitment of individuals, the building and binding of teams, project sprints or cross functional collaborations?
Practical wisdom would be demonstrated in the masterful blending of knowledge and experience, an understanding of both the specific context of a situation and a wider more integrated perspective, wisdom and action. The ability of individuals and teams to work for the common good and do the right thing at the correct time because it is the right thing to do, suggests a balance: a challenge of group-think and dominant assumptions, awareness of limitations and willingness to seek inspiration externally, ensure cognitive diversity and balance creativity/breaking through thinking with obedience to rules and resistance to change.
Yet, nurturing practical wisdom may even appear add odds with our enterprises and societies which are becoming more complex and interconnected, more specialised, more bureaucratic with rules, regulations and letter of the law compliance focus. It is balance to be found for each sector and enterprise (see Timpson example).
“UK key-cutting and shoe-repair chain Timpson; “Under founder John Timpson’s principle of “upside down management”, all staff are authorized to do whatever they judge is necessary to give the customer the best experience. This empowers everyone in the organization to think about how to do the right thing on a daily basis and never hide behind the policy book. The company does have some specific policies, too, but these reinforce rather than replace the emphasis on principle.””
Practical Wisdom and thinking about data and analysis
In 1973, Clifford Geertz, an anthropologist characterised his field notes and data as a “thick description” which was a multi-faceted examination of human behaviour (facts) plus how it related to the deeper cultural context. The aim was to observe, record, analyse and interpret a “thick description” to gain a deeper understanding and meaning.
Practical wisdom may be applied to your data in the steps you take to understand the enterprise strategy and desired outcomes (What do you want to achieve? Be direct and specific), How you engage across business to understand the source of data, cost/benefit and data integrity, whether any recent material changes in technology, enterprise practices, calculation or collection of time series of data. A constant reflection on choosing meaningful metrics, ask yourself “how do I know that” and “why is that important?”. The willingness to sense-check data analysis with subject matter experts, review lessons learned from prior errors, periods or external eco-system or industry benchmarks.
https://www.marketingweek.com/adidas-marketing-effectiveness/
““Adidas is on a journey to shift from marketing efficiency to marketing effectiveness, admitting a focus on ROI led it to over-invest in digital and performance marketing at the expense of brand building.” ….
Wrong metrics “ led Adidas to over-invest in paid search ….. an error it uncovered in its Latin America market when a breakdown at Google AdWords and therefore inability to invest in paid search didn’t lead to a dip in traffic or revenue coming from SEO.””
The purpose of an enterprise is evolving rapidly and is no longer just to “maximise shareholder value” declared the Business Roundtable in 2019. In 2020 CEO Larry Fink of Blackrock informed clients of a new ESG standard: “making sustainability integral to the way we manage risk, generate alpha, build portfolios, and pursue investment stewardship, in order to help improve your investment outcomes”. In 2020, the Pandemic forced business to re-examine and re-imagine themselves. As these trends continue there is a need for something fresh and new (or perhaps revisit something rather old).
Practical Wisdom; making sense of the eco-system is a “secret sauce” for individuals, teams , management and enterprise. As a way’s of working and thinking, it remains highly relevant today. Read deeply, reflect, listen, build cognitively diverse teams, collaborate and play it forward. Whiteark is here to assist.
“ “Virtue makes us aim at the right end, and practical wisdom makes us take the right means””
LOOKING TO CURATE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY? REACH OUT.
Whiteark is not your average consulting firm, we have first-hand experience in delivering transformation programs for private equity and other organisations with a focus on people just as much as financial outcomes.
We understand that execution is the hardest part, and so we roll our sleeves up and work with you to ensure we can deliver the required outcomes for the business. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au
Article written by Mark Easdown
The challenge has been laid to develop a Supply Chain Strategy that supports Australia’s renewed obsession with lifestyle
Matthew Webber writes about the challenge has been laid to develop a Supply Chain Strategy that supports Australia’s renewed obsession with lifestyle. The way that we buy, move and sell Is shifting in seismic proportions. We have had all the indicators within our radar for some – the uptake of ecommerce as a legitimate and safe platform for retail shopping, geo political trade wars playing out between large, industrialised nations and emerging nations along with increase consumer insistence on visibility and ethical sourcing practices.
Article written by Matthew Webber
The way that we buy, move and sell Is shifting in seismic proportions. We have had all the indicators within our radar for some – the uptake of ecommerce as a legitimate and safe platform for retail shopping, geo political trade wars playing out between large, industrialised nations and emerging nations along with increase consumer insistence on visibility and ethical sourcing practices. In amongst that we have had significant environmental impacts such as fires that have wiped out communities along with floods that have isolated regions.
“Insights from Matthew Webber | Matthew Webber is a specialist in strategy, program delivery and training, focused on driving business performance by developing commercial, operational and innovation capability. With over twenty years international experience, Matthew has worked across the globe with organisations undergoing immense change and comprehensive transformations. Inspired to create a world championed by kindness, where equitable opportunity is available for all - Matthew shares his vision through best-selling books and his sought-after keynotes. ”
Australian Supply Chains continue to be impacted by global events – necessitating a rethink of the sovereignty of our Supply Chains
Only in the last week have we seen how truly volatile our global supply chain networks are with the blocking of the Suez Canal by the Evergreen Cargo Ship ‘MV Ever Given’ in an unfortunate accident as the result of a sandstorm - potentially blocking up to 15% of global trade as goods need to pass between Asia and Europe. The question my Australian reading audience may ask, what would the Asia- Europe trade lane between have to do with Australian trade – and the answer is a lot. For a start, ports will become congested – the same ports that need to unload Australian export cargo, capacity will be stripped from the shipping market driving prices up, supply will be interrupted for manufacturing and oil prices will be driven up. That is just the start. This is one ship that has interrupted a global economy and it impacts your business, your people and your customers
Then of course we have had COVID-19. I reluctantly bring up the pandemic – because it is not the only issue of our times – yet it is so big – we cannot ignore to comment and acknowledge the shift that it will have in our psychology as a nation. Not to dissimilar to a war period – we are seeing fundamental shifts in our attitudes and behaviours – not just as a market, but as a people. The pandemic has been an ongoing issue for the global economy for well over a year now. The reactions, repositioning and rethinking of supply chains has been considerable
These are obvious impacts that have been impacting and shaping our supply chain strategies. For some organisations this has provided significant opportunity as they have created new business models or adapted exiting ones to suit. For other businesses, they have been slow to respond, and as a result have been lagging behind – and sadly for some the slow response has resulted in their demise. For those that have been fast to react – there is a chance that the successes may be short lived unless we start unpacking what is actually happening to the psychology, behaviour and ambitions of our nation.
“What does a Post Pandemic Australia look like?
On Wednesday 24th March 2021, I had the wonderful fortune of attending a Whiteark event where Bernard Salt, leading Demographer and commentator, presented a fascinating and insightful talk on the ‘Post Pandemic Australia: What we can expect’ .”
Bernard’s discussion of course was validating many of the impacts that global disruption has had on supply chains, and Bernard himself has publicly spoken about the opportunity to rethink our global supply chains and consider carefully the need to make our Supply Chains more sovereign. Put simply – the global environment is too volatile not to protect the key manufacturing capability and product availability of key necessities for the welfare of our nation –from a healthcare, security or economic perspective. This philosophy cascades to an organisational level where our organisations need to rethink the sovereignty of their supply chain and have key and strategic lines available and protected from global disruption – like we have seen in the pandemic, the Suez canal incident or more broadly many of the global economic disruptions from moving from an industrialised era to a digitised one.
Of course, though, Bernard Salt challenged my thinking further on the topic of Supply Chain strategy – beyond the obvious. Bernard’s discussion was focussed deeply on the psychology and aspirations of everyday Australian’s. And the theme, and label, that kept recurring was that of Lifestyle. As Australian’s we are obsessed with lifestyle – and the centre of gravity for our lifestyle rests in our home. This obsession has only renewed.
Supply chains need to be geared towards a lifestyle obsessed Australia
What all of these disruptions have done, particularly the major disruption of the pandemic, has reinforced how important lifestyle is to everyday Australians. The pandemic – for all of its pain – has brought with it an opportunity for us to reconnect with our neighbours friends and families. It has allowed us to spend more time in our homes. It has for many cut the daily commute by hours – time that can be spent connecting and enjoying the lifestyle and balance we so desire. Our attitudes to the way that we work have fundamentally been tipped upside down, as we revert to our natural desire of seeking a better lifestyle for our families.
What does this mean – what does it mean for our cities, for our suburbs, for our regional centres. Simply – our suburbs and our regional centres will be activated. The way that we work, the way that we engage, the way that we shop – will fundamentally shift. Not only do we now have some ‘more mature’ age consumers adopting ecommerce, but we also have whole generations behind us (such as the ‘Millenials’ that will up the imperative on placing value on experience and lifestyle even further. Our homes have, and will continue to become, bigger – and who would have thought that now a home office – or ‘zoom’ room would be a required feature of any home.
You may be rightfully asking, what does this have to do with my Supply Chain? The answer is a great deal. If we understand the psychology, behaviours and what ordinary Australian’s value, we can design and build our supply chains to support.
The way that we buy, move and sell will fundamentally shift as Australians adopt to their reinvigorated obsession with lifestyle. Our supply chains will need to be established to support the reactivation of suburbia and provincial Australia. If your supply chain does not directly serve these Australians – it will most certainly need to be supporting the businesses that do.
Our commuting, social, work and leisure activities have fundamentally returned us to be being closer to home – in close proximity to the things that matter to us most – our families, friend and our homes.
You supply chain needs to adapt to the reinvigorated obsession of Australians to their love of lifestyle. Your supply chain will need to be fast, accessible, sovereign and support the new behaviours and attitudes of everyday Australians – the everyday Australians that will be spending their leisure and work time at home or very near to home – and not at shopping centres, high streets, city offices or stuck in traffic on the daily commute.
How is your Supply Chain supporting Australia’s renewed obsession with lifestyle and connection?
LOOKING TO rethink your Supply Chain? REACH OUT.
Our leadership team at Whiteark have decades of experience in leading Supply Chain Transformations from Factory through to Customer, developing Market and Customer strategies that ensure relevance and desirability . We design the business model to deliver commercial feasibility and to ensure that your business is ready to not only deal with disruption, but to thrive in it. From strategy to design and execution. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au or explore our supply chain transformation services here.
Article written by Matthew Webber
Supply Chain Transformation Leadership in Action
Matthew Webber writes about Supply Chain Transformation leadership in action. One of the key attributes for any prosperous supply chain of the modern era is to have the ability to adapt and respond. We can design our supply chains structurally, and technically, to deliver on this outcome, however we do have to move our supply chains from where they are today, to where they need to be in the future. We need to do that through leading our people, our partners and our communities in which we operate.
Article written by Matthew Webber
One of the key attributes for any prosperous supply chain of the modern era is to have the ability to adapt and respond. We can design our supply chains structurally, and technically, to deliver on this outcome, however we do have to move our supply chains from where they are today, to where they need to be in the future. We need to do that through leading our people, our partners and our communities in which we operate.
“Insights from Matthew Webber | Matthew Webber is a specialist in strategy, program delivery and training, focused on driving business performance by developing commercial, operational and innovation capability. With over twenty years international experience, Matthew has worked across the globe with organisations undergoing immense change and comprehensive transformations. Inspired to create a world championed by kindness, where equitable opportunity is available for all - Matthew shares his vision through best-selling books and his sought-after keynotes. ”
We are in effect leading our supply chains to be change ready. Being change ready is a question of culture, and culture needs to be led.
Change is difficult at the best of times, but when you are trying to change a global supply chain with multiple interested parties, suppliers and communities the need to be omnipresent and lead through action is telling.
The key actions required by a supply chain leader when navigating transformative challenges are to:
Lead the vision
Build confidence
Empower people
Communicate effectively
Build the right team
Now let’s take a closer look at how to go about this.
Lead the vision
Leaders will be very good at finding the common thread that connects people to a mission or a cause.
Great supply chain leaders will be able to share a vision across the entire supply chain. They will also respect different cultures (geographical, industry, organisational) and needs within their supply chain community and embrace the differences as an advantage.
Given that the vision will cross so many organisation and cultural boundaries, it needs to be stated in a way that provides both brevity and clarity, and something that is able to be understood at all levels, in all organisations, in all geographies.
The vision must state where it is that you are going, why you are going there and importantly what are the key steps that need to be undertaken in getting there.
The collective vision will be a powerful foundation for all parties in your supply chain to engage with and provide as a beacon when making difficult decisions or provide guidance when confronted with difficult challenges.
If your vision is not a collective vision and does not value the contribution that all your stakeholders make to your supply chain, it will be very difficult to harmonise towards a common goal.
Build confidence
We can almost become fatigued by the disruption that impacts our supply chains – bushfires, pandemics, new systems, new ways of working, change in governments and policy – the list, as you are aware, goes on. We need to build confidence, and resilience, for our people to be able to face into each challenge as they arise. Being challenge ready and having the tools and support available to address the challenges is part of the solution.
People need to believe that the change is realistic and will create value. How many times has something been promised but not delivered? Where is the plan? How is it going to be resourced? Where does it start? How long will it take? What does it mean for me? Have they considered my situation? These are just some of the conscious and subconscious thoughts that could be going through people’s (as well as suppliers, service providers and communities) minds.
People gain confidence from wins, but those wins must not be rhetoric – they must be real wins that can be measured and are meaningful. Supply Chains can be big moving beasts, so being able to break it down into meaningful parts to create many small wins that support a broader, strategic intent is important.
And of course, believing that change and value creation can be sustained will provide confidence. You need to demonstrate that a new process, business model, distribution or manufacturing technique can survive past the initial implementation phase. You must measure, and be able to communicate, your ability to sustain an initiative.
Empower your people
Empowerment in your supply chain is about making sure the people, the communities, your partners are equipped and enabled to deliver their part of the value. We need to show support, provide the tools and training and create the space for this empowerment to occur. They need the capacity, competence and confidence in what they are being asked to deliver.
We also have to think about how teams in different environments and cultures learn and operate. For instance, a development program in one organisation, in one country may not be the most appropriate as in another organisation or another country.
It is important that everybody in the supply chain is empowered and equipped with the right tools, methods and mindsets to be able to cope with the change that is upon us. We not only need this capability, but we also need resilience so that when times are tough or we are under pressure, we actually have the capacity and capability to deal with the challenge without sacrificing our commitment to value creation.
Communicate, communicate, communicate
There is a lot of communication noise out there. Think of all the news services, all the work emails, all the social media – we are completely saturated by information and it is very difficult just to absorb everything, let alone understand it. So now let’s think about that in a Global Supply Chain context – with all the various parties and stakeholders, and all the moving parts, it can be overwhelming to say the least, and communications are in danger of becoming just a lot of meaningless noise.
You have to be able to cut through that noise so that your messages can be received and understood. This is why it is absolutely critical to have a consistent, systematic and deliberate routine for communicating valuable and meaningful information.
The words used, how they are said, and the tone used are very important in a global setting. You really need to ensure that you adjust your communications to suit the local situation – and you should do this with the support of the local teams. You also need to have systems in place that ensure that communications are received and understood and are in fact interpreted correctly.
Build the right team
For any business, the only real competitive advantage is people. While process, the way a business is organised, how resources are used, or how goods and services are marketed are all contributors to competitive advantage, they actually arise because of the people.
We can see that if we have people that are not culturally, or perhaps philosophically, aligned that it will slow down the transformation effort.
This must be a collective effort, and you must take necessary efforts and steps to ensure that the people operating in this setting are safe and have the right support and structure around them to help them be a success.
Your team extends beyond just your organisation – it reaches into the collective team of your partners and the communities you operate in.
We need to be able to link the supply chain through people and engagement – after all it is the people that will make our supply chains operate effectively and deliver value.
A common mistake that is made in the transformative efforts of supply chains is that they focus solely on the structural, or technical, elements of the supply chain. The biggest transformative failure comes when we do not consider the change readiness or capability of our people, partners and communities. Transformation in our supply chains must be led, and it must be led through action.
LOOKING TO rethink your Supply Chain? REACH OUT.
Our leadership team at Whiteark have decades of experience in leading Supply Chain Transformations from Factory through to Customer, developing Market and Customer strategies that ensure relevance and desirability . We design the business model to deliver commercial feasibility and to ensure that your business is ready to not only deal with disruption, but to thrive in it. From strategy to design and execution. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au or explore our supply chain transformation services here.
Article written by Matthew Webber
Competitive advantage is now shifting to the Supply Chain
Matthew Webber writes about how competitive advantage is now shifting to the Supply Chain. We are living in very uncertain times, driven by the various disruptions that are playing out in front of our very eyes. The level of disruption is often overwhelming, and the certainty, safety and security of our supply chains are under threat. It will be those organisations that can bring a level of consistency and reliability in their supply chains that will...
Article written by Matthew Webber
We are living in very uncertain times, driven by the various disruptions that are playing out in front of our very eyes. The level of disruption is often overwhelming, and the certainty, safety and security of our supply chains are under threat. It will be those organisations that can bring a level of consistency and reliability in their supply chains that will most certainly be well positioned for competitive advantage.
“Insights from Matthew Webber | Matthew Webber is a specialist in strategy, program delivery and training, focused on driving business performance by developing commercial, operational and innovation capability. With over twenty years international experience, Matthew has worked across the globe with organisations undergoing immense change and comprehensive transformations. Inspired to create a world championed by kindness, where equitable opportunity is available for all - Matthew shares his vision through best-selling books and his sought-after keynotes. ”
Disruption has also created a level of complexity in our Supply Chains that is confusing our decision making, impacting our opportunity to service or even to manage costs in an orderly and sensible manner. The complexities often have impacts that reach far greater than the organisation itself, and often are impacting communities and environments that are not in close proximity at all. Organisations that develop Supply Chains that can address this complexity, and make it on surface seem simple, are placing themselves in a strong competitive position.
We are moving from a world of industrialisation to digitisation. The impacts of this is in itself uncertain and complex – but it will most certainly have an impact on the way we work, the way we manufacture, the labour we use, the skills we acquire, and most certainly the geographies we operate in.
How organisations design and execute their supply chains will be the fundamental source of competitive advantage going forward. Supply Chains that are value and demand driven will certainly place themselves at an advantage over slow and reactive supply chains.
Let’s look at some strategic levers you can consider as you lead your organisations supply chain transformation strategy for competitive advantage.
Make data and digital your friend
Big data, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (including tagging, sensors and geolocation technologies) and blockchain are all means by which organisations are transforming their supply chains. Of course, on their own, these means are worth little, the value comes in the way that the information can be captured, disseminated, visualised, shared and acted upon.
What needs to be appreciated is the amount of information that flows across the entire Supply Chain and the awareness of how the ability to access this data in a meaningful way can add to the value proposition.
The manual collation of data and information is an inefficient way of doing business which exacerbates risks in the supply chain by delaying information flow and visibility.
Organisations are innovating to be able to operate with decisive speed, ensure that they are meeting and exceeding standards and providing customers, partners and other important stakeholders on demand information that meets compliance standards or reinforces messages on promises made.
With the amount of data and information being used, shared, and published – security is also becoming of paramount importance. Not only is there an expectation that the information is trustworthy, and able to be relied up so there needs to be integrity in the information (which can be potentially met with block chain technology), organisations also need to guard themselves from misuse of the information, ensuring that the information is used in the right context for the right permissible purposes. They also need to guard against cyber-attacks.
There are a number of ways that you can start making data and digital your friend;
Build an information strategy that provides for the on demand access to information and insights across the entire Supply Chain - create opportunities to share and collaborate on data and information sources to aid the operational planning and execution, network configuration and control of the Supply Chain;
Develop data capturing methods, activities and devices to be able to capture useful data, automating the collation and production of key insights and reporting;
Identify the areas of key risk and opportunities in your Supply Chain – ethical, operational, commercial and develop predictive modelling to leverage insight capability and to sense supply chain disruptions ; and
Establish safeguards to ensure the security of data and information.
Start Automating
There are many reasons why Supply Chains are transforming towards Automated and Robotics solutions. Access to reliable labour sources are becoming a challenge particularly for countries where there is an aging population, competing demand on labour, the lack of skill generation (or potentially the reverse where labour resources are upskilling to less labour orientated vocations), there is safety reasons, and cost imperatives that are also driving the push towards automation. On top of this is the exponential growth in ecommerce and the need for fast, reliable, consistent and accurate operational performance.
It would be difficult to envisage operations that are completely automated. By definition to automate something, you need to be able to provide the instruction on what the activity is that needs to be completed, how to complete the activity, when to complete the activity and so on. This requires human intervention and input at some level. Toyota have a principle of ‘autonomation’ which is basically automation with some human touch. This would involve approximately 80 to 90 % automation of process with the allowance of human engagement for improvement to the system.
Whilst there may be significant impacts to employees, and potentially economies relying in the use of manual labour to provide these services that can now be automated – the counter argument of improvements in productivity, reduction in safety issues, job creation in the innovation and delivery of automated solution, and the reinvestment of capital into more meaningful (and often more impactful) ways.
There are a number of ways that value can be created through Automation;
Building an automation strategy that provides for reduction in manual tasks that may create safety, reliability, accuracy, efficiency and service bottlenecks;
Redeploy resource into value adding activity which has customer focus;
Partner with automation design experts; and
If you want to be successful at automation, you must place people at the centre of automation – that may seem counter intuitive, however it is people that make automation successful, not robots
Design your Supply Chain with adaptability in mind
A one size fits all strategy for a modern Supply Chain will simply not work. Customers are becoming increasingly demanding upon what their requirements are, and how they want their expectations fulfilled.
This resonates on so many fronts for the supply chain strategy. How products are made, where you source from (and from who you source from), what geographies you operate from, how you manufacture and how you manage logistics, the depth of your relationships and the integrations of your systems will all have a significant bearing on how you can customise your offer to your customer, and how you diversify your supply chain accordingly to meet this requirement.
Supply chains need to be configured around the channels, clusters and customer experience expectations. Essentially customers need a supply chain menu, where micro segments are offered to meet the customer experience requirements of the customer and the efficiency requirements of the organisation. This could mean many things to many organisations – but as a start you could be thinking about different supply chains based on product characteristics, channel (such as physical or online) or even the velocity and predictability of the demand.
Technology in manufacturing and production needs to be leveraged to be able to deal with complex, unique and customised designs. Additive manufacturing (commonly referred to as 3D printing) and rapid prototyping techniques are enabling a “fail fast” mentality, more complex design, smaller parts and less waste. This will have significant bearing on size, scope and location of manufacturing facilities and where and how products are sourced, milled and configured.
With the vast amount of data available, and the ability to link this data, and collaborate with this data – the opportunity to build more demand driven supply chains is realistic. Whilst the concept of demand driven supply chains is not new, it has in many circumstances been unachievable because it has relied on historical data sets. With embedded sensor activity, remote engagement and instruction, predictive analytic models and the ability to scrape social media data and collect data from open sources the ability to predict demand, recognise patterns and anticipate changes is greater than ever before providing for the ability to customise solutions.
There are a number of ways that this value can be created through designing an adaptable Supply Chain;
Building a diversification strategy supply chain strategy that provides for the ability to respond, build, distribute and satisfy customisation needs;
Establish a multi geared, multi clustered supply chain that is linked to the customer experience anticipated;
Establish data collection capability from multiple sources that can be collected, curated and managed; and
Realign manufacturing and production footprint, methods and location to create the ability to customise based on customer preference and volatility in demand requirements
Together is better than alone so collaborate
The benefits of collaboration have long been recorded in the world of global supply chains. Collaboration provides the opportunity to share the weight of common problems, develop more insightful solutions, leverage the various perspectives and intellect from across the supply chain, to share the investment and resource allocation and of course to build value and share in the spoils in very fair and reasonable manner.
Collaboration is a hot topic for the current environments, and for reasons no more important than the fact collaboration is the core ingredient to innovation and developing solutions to fast, complex and spread problems that have infiltrated the supply chain. For many of the new and emerging technologies to function they need a higher degree of collaborative effort.
Like the Apple iPhone requires the collaboration with app builders to make the iPhone an attractive value proposition (without the apps they are just another phone), supply chains require the collaboration of key elements to make a fast, agile and responsive supply chain work. It is near on impossible to run every aspect of the supply chain on your own, the sheer scale makes this unachievable. You need systems, service providers, suppliers, finance and so much more to connect the supply chain and bring value to life in the global supply chain.
Cost driven, transactional style relationships with partners and providers is a significantly outdated and inappropriate course for a supply chain strategy dealing with disruption and realignment. You need meaningful relationships, insights, technologies and operational capabilities to actually be able to create value. Toxic relationships, and ones with no trust, are not only exhausting, distracting, expensive and unreliable – they are a threat to your brand and ability to drive social impact and to do the right thing.
Digital and data capabilities will of course make the collaboration effort easier, and more powerful with the aggregation of information that on its own is nothing special but combined becomes a source of insight and considerable strategic advantage. The magic happens when there is alignment with supplier performance and consumer behaviour.
There are a number of ways that this value can be created through collaboration;
Building a collaboration strategy that provides for the ability to innovate and create shared insight and value;
Consolidate your partner base to provide the opportunity for deep relationships that enable collaboration practices to evolve and thrive;
Develop data, insight and best practice sharing capability – including the opportunity for teams from both organisations to work in each others environments; and
Identify and prioritise problems that can be solved collaboratively
Don’t forget your values
There is no doubt that there is a greater emphasis of all organisation to provide a greater focus on ethical and sustainability issues. There are also greater opportunities for organisations to create competitive advantage specifically through what they value and how they go about doing business.
There are very pragmatic reasons why organisations focus on values and socially focussed initiatives. For a start putting aside competitive advantages that can be created through value alignment, organisations focus on these areas to mitigate reputational damage risks and also focus on these areas for regulatory compliance reasons.
Being Values driven and socially focussed is not an afterthought, it must be an application of intent and desire.
What it requires is an exerted effort, strong focus, consistency in behaviour and messaging and a very authentic will – otherwise it will be seen as a dressed up marketing ploy. Long consistent repetition of positive actions and behaviours are the order of the day.
There are a number of ways that this Value can be created through values;
Building a values and social impact strategy that provides the source and foundation to create value, and competitive advantage;
Create a business case that considers a holistic value concept view of value and moves beyond short-term financial effects;
Leadership support, communication and behaviour that is consistent with the values and social impact; and
A long term view of consistent, repetitive reinforcement of the values and commitment to social impact that earns the trust of the supply chain and customer community
One thing is for sure, our Supply Chains will look very different in terms of the way the operate, and how they are positioned.
The organisations that can transition effectively stand to gain significant advantage over the long term – in fact it is almost certainly becoming a race, and a race that we have no choice but to join.
The race of business will be won and lost by how organisations organise their Factory to Customer Supply chain and adapt to the new environments that are upon us and can satisfy the growing demands of the modern customer and the experience that they expect.
LOOKING TO rethink your Supply Chain? REACH OUT.
Our leadership team at Whiteark have decades of experience in leading Supply Chain Transformations from Factory through to Customer, developing Market and Customer strategies that ensure relevance and desirability . We design the business model to deliver commercial feasibility and to ensure that your business is ready to not only deal with disruption, but to thrive in it. From strategy to design and execution. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au or explore our supply chain transformation services here.
Article written by Matthew Webber
Retail Transformation in Disruptive Times
Matthew Webber writes about retail transformation in disruptive times. It is both confronting and somewhat depressing to turn the pages (physically or digitally) of a newspaper to see yet another retailer fall victim to the economic climate. There is nothing nice about an empty shop front, the loss of jobs or the withdrawal of an important community institution.
Article written by Matthew Webber
It is both confronting and somewhat depressing to turn the pages (physically or digitally) of a newspaper to see yet another retailer fall victim to the economic climate. There is nothing nice about an empty shop front, the loss of jobs or the withdrawal of an important community institution.
“Insights from Matthew Webber | Matthew Webber is a specialist in strategy, program delivery and training, focused on driving business performance by developing commercial, operational and innovation capability. With over twenty years international experience, Matthew has worked across the globe with organisations undergoing immense change and comprehensive transformations. Inspired to create a world championed by kindness, where equitable opportunity is available for all - Matthew shares his vision through best-selling books and his sought-after keynotes. ”
It is though happening at such a rate that we are almost becoming immune to the headline story and this creates an additional challenge for us all.
These fallen retailers are often iconic brands that people have relationships with, sometimes these brands have become national treasures, and they are employers of thousands (sometimes tens of thousands) people.
They are in fact serving an all important role in society whether that be supplying little Mary’s bike for Christmas, putting food on the tables for everyday people, or providing clothes for everyday wear or of course for a memorable event.
Retail is indeed an institution, it is iconic, it is for many an emotional experience. It is little wonder we don’t want to see it change. The problem is though it is changing, and the ball of momentum is rolling down the hill and picking up pace.
Like any change process – whether that be for the retailers themselves, or for the customers that hold them dear we need to understand Why it needs to change in order for us to change. It is then important for us to look forward and see what the future holds, and then importantly how do we get from here to there.
Why Change?
Survival
Sometimes in life we have to make the message simple so not to dilute or cloud the message. In this instance there is no greater reason to change than for survival. It is that simple and clear.
This is, for all purposes a likened to being in a paddock being chased by a ferocious Lion – with the good fortune that you can find safety (and opportunity) though only available if you run towards it. If you stand still, your future is bleak, if you run in a direction other than the one that presents the opportunity you will also meet the same fate – albeit a little more puffed out!
Survival can mean so many things and have different meaning to different people – whether that be the ability to remain in business to fulfil a dream, having the opportunity to provide jobs, or even the in the pursuit of retail excellence to provide a great service to your customer.
What though is clear, is you must be first concerned with basic needs, in this case survival to then meet our psychological and self-fulfilment needs as Maslow’s hierarchy of needs would suggest.
There can be no greater reason for change than survival.
What does the future look like?
The good news is that the future is up to you. You can create the future in any way that you like, and one in which fulfils your objectives. There are some guiding principles that you will need to consider though as you create the future.
1. Customer centricity
Having a healthy obsession with your customer is key. This is about understanding their needs, being empathetic to their problems and having the ability to design solutions that will create an experience that they can emotionally connect with.
2. Option creator
Customers need choice to meet their changing needs. They need options that they can have their needs met. Creating a rigid business model will almost certainly fail in a world where the consumer is craving personalised attention in a very busy world
3. Fast (and furious)
With the onset of technological advancement, and an economic environment where the power balance has well and truly shifted to the customer – there is a need for speed. This relates to the entire experience – how they interact with you (in person or digitally), the fulfilment of orders or the creation of solutions. Your supply chain (physical, information and financial supply chains) will need to support this. Your customer needs what they want yesterday – it is the world we live in.
4. Digital
Digital must dominate your business model – whether that be providing your customer with the ability to buy online, the way you structure your supply chain or the way that you collect insights and learnings about your customer, industry, market and opportunities. Your customer is digital, so must you.
5. Trusted
Your customer needs to Trust that you will deliver in your promise, trust that you have their interests at heart, trust that you understand their problems and how to solve them and have trust in the information, data, and emotional insights that they share with you. The move to a faster, more digital world comes with a greater onus on the Retailer to deliver on Trust. Remember people are at the centre of Trust.
Steps you can take
Now we have a flavour for the reasons why Retailers must change and a view into the attributes that are required to establish the future vision, it is important we consider how to get from the current environment to the new world.
1. Listen to your customer
As simple as this sounds, it is the most important thing that you can do. The trick is to listen in a way that seeks to understand (just as Stephen R Covey would suggest in 7 Habits of Highly Effective People). It is easy to listen in a way that just validates your views, but if you listen in a way that can identify their real problems and how they would like you to solve for them – value will be created.
You will need to immerse yourself in their world, understand the data (including from social media) and look to their behaviours and actions. Customers, particularly retail customers, speak with their feet (or fingers in a digital world) so listening to your customers behaviours is one of the most powerful tools you can use.
2. Define the problems and Create the opportunities
Work with your customer on solutions, and trial and test concepts as quickly as you can. Set up an innovation hub, a centre of learning so that you can collaborate, learn and develop.
Scan the globe for clues in how other retailers have solved for the same problem, or in fact how other industries have solved for like type products. By all means be original but do not invent the wheel. A great deal of energy can be expended trying to be too clever. Keep it simple and relevant.
It all starts with identifying and defining the problem well. This will help you move with speed when you test and trial solutions with your customers. Having your customer provide the insight and engagement in the problem definition will almost certainly ensure that they are engaged with you on the solution
3. Design an adaptable, and commercial, Business Model
Design a business model that supports the future and delivers on the value proposition and build in a way that allows the business model to adapt to changes in the environment. It is also critical that you create a business model that is commercial.
Many great retailers have fallen foul of moving their business into the digital world only to realise that the cost to service and fulfil orders in e-commerce can be expensive and slow. It is important to design your business model that is customer centric and which can actually fulfil the promises you make to your customers and people.
4. Effect the change
You need to be able to effect the change. To effect change you need to be able to lead the vision, build confidence, empower your people, communicate effectively and build really solid teams.
This will be your internal ability to adapt, transform and execute to deliver sustained business performance. Ideas are only ideas until they are executed. Even the best laid plans amount to nothing unless they are done. For ideas to be done you need people to engage with and embrace change as opposed to fighting it. You will need to be change ready.
Being change ready will enable your organisation to act with speed and agility. It means you can do more with less and importantly ensure that you are not only a retail leader, but a profitable one
5. Do the right thing
We highlighted that Trust is an important attribute for the design of future retail models, and with good reason. As you transform you need to ensure that you transform in a way that makes customer and commercial sense, but also in a way that ensures you do the right thing by the people and communities that you operate in from Source to Customer.
This could be how you (or your manufacturers) treat the workers in a factory in Bangladesh, through to creating safe work environments for the people fulfilling your orders or transitioning your labour force from bricks and mortar retail to a digital one. It may even be how you use and safely store data.
There are short cuts that can be taken in any transformation, quite often at the expense of people that are most vulnerable.
Your customers in the new world expect you to do the right thing from source to customer. You as a retail leader should expect nothing less.
There are significant opportunities for Retailers to reinvent themselves, build relevance and create significant advantage by following some very basic principles. The future is able to be created and reimagined.
The cost of inaction is just too high.
It just requires a rethink.
LOOKING TO rethink retail? Adjust your approach and G2M strategy? REACH OUT.
Our leadership team at Whiteark have decades of experience in leading Retail Transformations from Factory through to Customer, developing Market and Customer strategies that ensure relevance and desirability . We design the business model to deliver commercial feasibility and to ensure that your Retail business is ready to not only deal with disruption, but to thrive in it. From strategy to design and execution. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au or explore our retail transformation services here.
Article written by Matthew Webber
Rethinking your Global Supply Chain
Matthew Webber writes about rethinking our Global Supply Chains. The world as we know it has changed. The speed, the relationships, the priorities, the tastes. We can access information, goods and services quicker than ever – and our environments politically, environmentally and structurally seem more volatile than ever before. And this is before we even get to the great awakener in COVID -19.
Article written by Matthew Webber
It is time to rethink our Global Supply Chains. The world as we know it has changed. The speed, the relationships, the priorities, the tastes. We can access information, goods and services quicker than ever – and our environments politically, environmentally and structurally seem more volatile than ever before. And this is before we even get to the great awakener in COVID -19.
“Insights from Matthew Webber | Matthew Webber is a specialist in strategy, program delivery and training, focused on driving business performance by developing commercial, operational and innovation capability. With over twenty years international experience, Matthew has worked across the globe with organisations undergoing immense change and comprehensive transformations. Inspired to create a world championed by kindness, where equitable opportunity is available for all - Matthew shares his vision through best-selling books and his sought-after keynotes. ”
The problem is of course, many of our global supply chains have been designed for an era that was perhaps more predictable, more stable and perhaps in an era where global supply chains were considered to be an enabler of business strategy as opposed to being at the very core of value creation, and business model design.
The focus of global supply chains has arguably been historically to leverage efficiency, optimisation and cost advantage to create value. The current economic, political, environmental and now global health climate now not only requires but forces us to rethink our Global Supply Chains beyond efficiency and cost advantage.
This begs the question – what then a Global Supply Chain must look like in order to thrive in such uncertain times. They must be;
1. Adaptable
Adaptability is the ability to be flexible to new situations, handle change and be able to balance multiple demands and stimulants. It is about being ‘comfortable with the uncomfortable’ and if nothing else it is having the right cultural mindset.
It is of course more than culture – although that is where it will start. This will be having your business model design curated in a way that every layer of your organisation, internal and external can operate in a manner that provides speed, certainty and agility in environments that are changing.
This may require a rethink, and acceleration of the technology you use, the processes you deploy and operating rhythms you maintain. This also requires a disciplined focus on what you are not going to do, as much as what it is you are going to do.
2. Sovereign
A sovereign supply chain is one that can be self-governed and controlled, and that mitigates your exposure to external influences whether they be political, environmental or other.
When using the word sovereign, it does imply the concept is at a national level – and this is of course true – we must have a national supply chain that secures our food and medical supplies for instance.
However, the concept also applies to our organisations – there are some products and services that you simply cannot afford to have disrupted by external events, and at the very least if they were to be disrupted you will have sufficient cover to not interrupt your delivery of value.
It will of course be unreasonable to control every element of your global supply chain. It is reasonable though, and important, that you can control the elements that are critical to the value proposition.
To place in practical terms, a supermarket for instance could ill afford to be out of bread, milk and toilet paper – and their supply chains will reflect this. On the other hand, they may be able to manage through a period of disruption to supply of Mexican taco sauce!
What is a certainty is that global supply chains will remain – Global. That much is certain. We will not shift all production back on shore, that would be unreasonable, and impractical.
What will become though is far more strategic on what needs to be off shore, near shore and on shore to maintain a sense of sovereignty over your supply chain.
3. Connected
It is easy to conceptualise a global supply chain in a linear fashion of connecting link with link, to take a product or service from concept to consumption. This is true, however in today’s world the level of connection your global supply chain requires is so much more.
Your global supply chain an eco-system of people, partners, process and systems, and they all need to be connected in a way that allows value to flow – not just linearly but in any direction as your organisation adapts to changing environments and new opportunities.
Connection is more than system and process alignment. It is also a way of being for your organisation, it is the philosophies, culture and behaviours that are demonstrated in all points of your global supply chain whether that be the internal culture of the organisation, the alignment of values with your suppliers or integration with the communities that you operate in.
It is about all in the global supply chain being connected into the purpose, the strategic direction and the objectives you are collectively trying to achieve. Only when you have achieved this values connection can you really turn your hand to connection from a system, process and business model design perspective.
Together is always better than alone. To be together though requires you to be connected.
4. Digital
Robust connectivity is needed to enable faster, more frequent interactions across globally distributed supply chain networks. The seamless flow of information is critical not just simply for the efficient operation of your global supply chain, but to gain valuable commercial insights that create value.
It is the ‘now’ economy and we are all dependent upon information and technology to function.
Digital and data allows for greater connectivity and the ability to manage enormous amounts of data. It enables more opportunities for collaboration with your global supply chain and reducing duplication of effort.
Organisations that can use digital and data to create meaningful insights can create closer relationships with their customers and understand their needs greater. It allows the ability to develop global supply chains that are adaptable and configurable to the changing needs of the market. It also allows for the ability to develop greater efficiencies in operations and drive better service and financial performance
The insights gleaned from digitisation of your supply chain can then inform the technology and innovation that you require to deliver value.
5. Commercial
Your global supply chain needs to remain commercial. This needs to be reflected in the arrangements, operational and financial structures, performance measurements governance, financial controls and strategies you deploy.
As we transition quickly to the new world order, nothing will support you more in that effort than having complete commercial control of your global supply chain. Think of it like a formula one car that is designed to go fast through the engineering of controls into the operation of the car.
Whether it be your customer, your operators, service providers and suppliers or your stakeholders - they need visibility and assurance of the performance of your global supply chain.
They also need you to succeed so that they can succeed. The way you rethink your global supply chain needs to create value, and if you are not creating and distributing that value you will have limited opportunity in a modern world.
Adaptable, sovereign, connected and digital supply chains does not mean that you compromise your commercial imperatives – they are in fact the drivers to enhance them. This is a common mistake many make – they redesign their global supply chains in commercially unsustainable ways that really deliver little end to end, holistic value. The other mistake is of course that organisations focus solely on the efficiency and cost control elements – which of course can become a value dilution exercise if not linked in with strategy and value creation.
What is evident is this rethink is not optional nor is it a ‘nice to have’ – this is an imperative to business survival and relevance.
The cost of not having this rethink may have disastrous, if not fatal, consequences to achieving your organisation’s objectives and perhaps purpose.
Ultimately this will come down to how an organisation sees itself and how aware they are of their risk environment and of their opportunity to create. It will be a function of how close they are to understanding what is truly of value to their customer and also the communities that they operate in. Value remember, is in the eyes of the customer, not the operator.
The good news is that this all spells opportunity for those organisations that can transform their global supply chains into ones that are adaptable, sovereign, connected, digital and commercial. It just requires a rethink.
LOOKING TO rethink your supply chain? REACH OUT.
Our team has extensive global experience leading large scale Supply Chain Transformations from Factory to Customer across multiple industries. We have in depth capabilities around designing and delivering value in the Physical, Financial and Information (Digital) Supply Chain and can help your organisation create competitive advantage and value centred on the global supply chain. From strategy to design and execution. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au or explore our Supply Chain services here.
Article written by Matthew Webber
Obsessed about business optimisation
Optimisation is an overused word that can mean a lot of things, so let me explain... can a business perform better than they currently are? Can they improve customer experience, their pricing strategy and financial outcomes to drive a better return? In most cases the answer is yes!
Optimisation is an overused word that can mean a lot of things, so let me explain... can a business perform better than they currently are? Can they improve customer experience, their pricing strategy and financial outcomes to drive a better return? In most cases the answer is yes!
I'm that person at the cafe that worries about how the owners are affording to pay all their staff (overstaffed), that nail place that isn't charging enough to make ends meet, the tradie that doesn't make me pay when the service is done but a month later, the discounts in the department stores, the amount of stock on the shelves and the cashflow management of companies.
The COVID period has shown us that companies need to be:
More efficient
More commercial
Focus in on cashflow more
Get the pricing right
Focus in on customer experience
Small, medium and large businesses all have areas that they can improve. Research shows that business optimisation can improve the financial performance of your company by 21%+.
Business owners and leaders need to focus on business optimisation. What are the 4-5 things that will move the dial for your business?
Cashflow optimisation - maximising your working capital through tactical and strategic levers. Are you putting enough focus on this?
Pricing rationalisation - are you charging enough for your product and service and how you do compare to your competitors?
Strategic sourcing - are you strategic around how you manage your vendors to drive cost improvements and working capital outcomes?
Process optimisation - improve process efficiency and effectiveness by reducing complexity in the process.
Property management - lease costs cost approximately $10-12k per person per year. With the new ways of working and companies adapting to remote working, review your lease arrangements and assess whether your company really needs all that space. Can you sublet the space or hand it back to the landlord? Many companies are considering other options in relation to rental space. Are you?
One way to really reset the cost base of a business is the zero-based budget. Read our recent Whiteark article that explains why, how, and when you should use this technique. With a focus on what money is spent on and the return on investment including dollars and time to recover cost outlays, you can significantly change your cost base.
“If I had one hour to save the world, I would spend fifty-five minutes defining the problem and only five minutes finding the solution.”
Do you need to create a business optimisation plan? Let us help.
At Whiteark we have professionals that have practical, hands on experience on how to optimise business. Understanding every business is different and there is no one size fits all but we would be very happy to have a no obligation conversation around your business optimisation plan. Our co-founders have a combined experience of over 50 years’ working as Executives in organisations delivering outcomes for shareholders. Reach out for a no obligation conversation on how we can help you. Contact us on whiteark@whiteark.com.au