Household Consumption

Covid Impact Report

Household Consumption

Covid-19 has caused household saving ratios to hit heights not seen since the early 1970s.

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OVERVIEW

Household Consumption Spending:

50% of households expect to have less income available after meeting commitments.

Disposable income expectations in a year from now:

• Increase: 17%

• Decrease: 50%

• Remain the Same: 25%

• Unsure: 8%

Household disposable income outlook…

• Employment is increasing as pandemic restrictions ease

• Population growth has slowed from 1.5% to 0.5% - less people receiving income than previously expected

• Wages growth has slowed from a low 2.2% to 1.8% and may decline further given the weak labour market

• Federal income support will be progressively reduced over the next six months

• Interest payments on savings have declined and so have share market dividends
  

Household Consumption Expenditure Outlook

• Household consumption expenditure growth will improve slowly as more spending options

  become available

• Weak income growth will constrain the rate of growth, although a build up of savings is likely

  to reduce slowly and support spending to some degree

• In annual growth terms, spending will likely still be in decline over the September, December,

  and March 2021 quarters

• Underlying growth will then settle at around 3.5% to 4%, which is similar to the growth rate

  before the pandemic

• Pessimistic estimate of underlying growth in consumer spending is 1.5% to 2% and optimistic

  estimate is 5% to 6%. The optimistic estimate is still below the pre-GFC growth rate of 5% to 9%

*Data Source: Foreseechange, Charlie Nelson